SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 44.25%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 32.79% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.77%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
32.79% ( -0.3) | 22.96% ( 0.31) | 44.25% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 64.32% ( -1.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.28% ( -1.63) | 36.72% ( 1.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.12% ( -1.79) | 58.88% ( 1.79) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.58% ( -0.94) | 22.42% ( 0.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.06% ( -1.42) | 55.94% ( 1.43) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.91% ( -0.64) | 17.09% ( 0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.71% ( -1.15) | 47.29% ( 1.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lugano | Draw | Basel |
| 2-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.3)2-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 2.14% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.41% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.32% Total : 32.79% | 1-1 @ 10.12% ( 0.31) 2-2 @ 6.68% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 3.83% ( 0.3)3-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.36% Total : 22.96% | 1-2 @ 8.94% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.39)0-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 5.26% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.94% ( -0.16)0-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 2.33% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 1.74% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.22% Total : 44.25% |
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