SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 71.43%. A draw had a probability of 18.4% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 10.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.14%) and 0-3 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.64%), while for a Progreso win it was 1-0 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Nacional |
10.21% ( -0.25) | 18.36% ( -0.04) | 71.43% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 42.43% ( -0.77) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.65% ( -0.54) | 47.34% ( 0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.43% ( -0.5) | 69.56% ( 0.49) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.18% ( -0.84) | 51.81% ( 0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.11% ( -0.56) | 85.88% ( 0.55) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.06% ( -0.08) | 11.93% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.7% ( -0.15) | 37.3% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 4.07% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.97% Total : 10.21% | 1-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.51% Total : 18.36% | 0-2 @ 13.97% ( 0.23) 0-1 @ 13.14% ( 0.25)0-3 @ 9.9% ( 0.13)1-2 @ 9.19% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 6.51% ( -0.07)0-4 @ 5.26% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 3.46% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 2.24% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.14% ( -0.08)1-5 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.14% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.01% Total : 71.42% |
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