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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Connah's Quay Nomads win with a probability of 60.81%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Newtown AFC had a probability of 18.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Connah's Quay Nomads win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.49%) and 0-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.63%), while for a Newtown AFC win it was 2-1 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Connah's Quay Nomads would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
18.47% ( -0.04) | 20.71% ( -0) | 60.81% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 56.66% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.13% ( -0.05) | 39.86% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.77% ( -0.05) | 62.22% ( 0.05) |
| Newtown AFC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.9% ( -0.07) | 35.1% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.15% ( -0.07) | 71.85% ( 0.07) |
| Connah's Quay Nomads Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.31% ( -0.01) | 12.69% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.12% ( -0.01) | 38.88% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newtown AFC | Draw | Connah's Quay Nomads |
| 2-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 4.66% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.44% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 1.76% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.76% Total : 18.47% | 1-1 @ 9.63% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.2% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 20.71% | 1-2 @ 9.94% ( 0) 0-2 @ 9.49% ( 0.02)0-1 @ 9.19% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 6.84% 0-3 @ 6.53% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 3.53% ( -0)0-4 @ 3.37% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.85% ( -0)1-5 @ 1.46% 0-5 @ 1.39% ( 0)Other @ 3.64% Total : 60.81% |
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