Australia may have ridden their luck somewhat in their initial meeting with Vietnam, but we do not expect any similar sort of difficulty for the Socceroos this week.
Vietnam's hopes of a third-placed finish are all but dead in the water, and confidence will not be sky-high having ceded their AFF Championship crown, so Arnold's men will expect to march to a routine win here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 48.79%. A win for Vietnam had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.46%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Vietnam win was 0-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.8%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.
