Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 46.55%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 27.95% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.25%) and 0-2 (8.24%). The likeliest Honduras win was 1-0 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that USA would win this match.
