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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Miami Open last-16 clash between Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Still on course for a maiden sunshine double, Carlos Alcaraz seeks a place in the quarter-finals of the Miami Open when he clashes with Lorenzo Musetti in Tuesday's last-16 showdown.

Both men advanced to the fourth round courtesy of straight-sets victories, as Alcaraz battled his way past Gael Monfils while his Italian foe bested Ben Shelton in a thriller.


Match preview

Just over a year old when Monfils made his debut on the ATP Tour, Alcaraz and the veteran Frenchman - 17 years the Spaniard's senior - more than entertained the Miami crowd in their third-round contest, where the physically inferior Monfils did his utmost to frustrate the second seed.

The 36-year-old's efforts momentarily paid dividends in the second set, as he broke Alcaraz while the Indian Wells Masters champion was serving for the match, but he only delayed the inevitable as the Spaniard strode to a 6-2 6-4 triumph in one hour and 14 minutes.

As Monfils was left to lament six double faults, Alcaraz landed 81% of his first serves and - as ever - mixed up his game with an exquisite selection of drop shots to counteract Monfils's defence, etching his name into another page of the ATP Tour history books in the process.

Indeed, the 20-year-old is now the first under-21 player to reach the last 16 of both the Indian Wells Masters and Miami Open three years running, and he has only suffered one fourth-round exit at any ATP 1000 tournament during his professional career, losing to Grigor Dimitrov at this stage in Shanghai last year.

Alcaraz even managed to withstand the pressure of putting on a performance for Brazilian football star Neymar and NBA All-Star Jimmy Butler, both of whom were in attendance to watch the top seed earn his eighth successive win on the ATP Tour, prior to which he dropped just three games in his second-round clash with compatriot Roberto Carballes Baena.

Bidding to snap Alcaraz's hopes of a sixth Masters title while simultaneously matching his best result at an ATP 1000 tournament, 22-year-old Musetti earned a mouthwatering date with the world number two thanks to a scintillating performance against Florida favourite Shelton.

Fresh from a relatively straightforward win over Roman Safiullin in his Miami opener, the 23rd seed got the crowd off their feet with a sensational array of passing shots in a 6-4 7-6[5] triumph, working both his forehand and backhand to devastating effect in the one-hour and 52-minute battle.

A deciding set was ostensibly on the cards when Shelton roared into a 4-1 lead in the second, but Musetti found a sixth gear to level at 4-4 before an unforced Shelton error into the net punched the Italian's ticket to the last 16 of a Masters tournament for just the third time.

The 22-year-old's only quarter-final appearances at ATP 1000 level to date came in Monte Carlo last year and Paris in 2022, but he has an extra motivation to break new ground in Florida, having become a father for the first time just nine days before opening his Miami adventure against Safiullin.

A fourth-round exit would still represent Musetti's finest performance at the Miami Open to date, but should the 23rd seed defy the odds and send Alcaraz home early, either Dimitrov or Hubert Hurkacz will lie in wait in the quarter-finals.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

Second round: vs. Roberto Carballaes Baena 6-2 6-1
Third round: vs. Gael Monfils 6-2 6-4

Lorenzo Musetti:

Second round: vs. Roman Safiullin 7-5 6-1
Third round: vs. Ben Shelton 6-4 7-6[5]


Head To Head

China Open (2023) - Second Round: Alcaraz wins 6-2 6-2
French Open (2023) - Fourth round: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-2 6-2
Hamburg European Open (2022) - Final: Musetti wins 6-4 6-7[6] 6-4

Tuesday's fledgling competitors unsurprisingly lack a rich head-to-head record, but Alcaraz possesses the edge 2-1 over his Italian foe, earning those two triumphs in their last two contests on the ATP Tour.

After two clay-court battles, Alcaraz and Musetti met on a hard surface for the first time at last year's China Open, where the former dropped just four games en route to a routine victory, just a few months after another comfortable success in the fourth round of the French Open.

However, Musetti's only victory over Alcaraz was a significant one, as the Italian eked out a three-set success in the final of the 2022 Hamburg European Open for his maiden ATP Tour title, as well as subjecting Alcaraz to first loss in a top-level showpiece event.


We say: Alcaraz to win in three sets

Should Musetti replicate his astounding passing shots from the closing stages of his win over Shelton, Alcaraz will have a true fight on his hands to reach the quarter-finals, although the Spaniard ought to arrive in better physical condition after making light work of Monfils.

Furthermore, Musetti's form otherwise in 2024 has been nothing to write home about - he had only won five matches before the start of Miami - and we still expect Alcaraz to march on to the last eight and keep his dream of a sunshine double alive.

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