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Preview: Kei Nishikori vs. Cameron Norrie - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Kei Nishikori vs. Cameron Norrie - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Friday's Hong Kong Open quarter-final between Cameron Norrie and Kei Nishikori, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

A highly intriguing quarter-final is in store at the Hong Kong Open, as Cameron Norrie and former world number four Kei Nishikori scrap it out for a place in the final four.

Norrie survived a second-set scare against Italy's Lorenzo Sonego to progress to the last eight, while his Japanese counterpart stunned Karen Khachanov to return to the world's top 100.


Match preview

Bidding to consign the injury woes of 2024 to the past, ex-British number one Norrie ended the last calendar year with another runners-up finish to his name in November's Moselle Open, and the current world number 49 already means business in 2025.

After making light work of American prospect Learner Tien in his opening Hong Kong bout, Norrie came through a taxing test against Sonego in the second round, taking two hours and 24 minutes to record a 6-2 4-6 6-1 victory in a rain-affected encounter.

Shining on the defensive front against his Italian foe, Norrie posted an eye-catching 72% win rate on second serves and saved two of the three break points that Sonego managed to fashion, while also attacking his opponent's second serves with ferocity.

The 29-year-old won of 16 of 23 second-serve return points and justifiably claimed afterwards that he "did not do much wrong" throughout his three-set win, his reward for which is a 25th quarter-final on the ATP Tour.

Another top-level crown is long overdue for Norrie, whose fifth and most recent title on the ATP Tour came all the way back in February 2023 at the Rio Open, and not since February 2022 has the former British number one taken home a hard-court honour.

Norrie's ATP Tour title drought pales in comparison to Nishikori's, as the Japanese veteran is without a top-level singles trophy since early 2019, but the injury-plagued 35-year-old is fit and firing once again and has taken down two revered foes in Hong Kong so far.

After passing the Denis Shapovalov test with flying colours - dropping just five games to the Canadian - Nishikori produced a remarkable fightback to down third seed Khachanov 4-6 6-3 7-5 with two hours and nine minutes on the clock.

As was the case with Norrie against Sonego, Nishikori flaunted his second-serving prowess with 61% of points won behind such attempts, and the upshot of his second-round success is that the 35-year-old is back in the top 100 for the first time in two-and-a-half years.

Nevertheless, the former US Open finalist was under no illusions that luck was on his side at times against Khachanov, who was often his own worst enemy with 45 unforced errors, but he credited himself with raising his game after a "shaky" first set versus the third seed.

Should the Nishikori revival continue with victory against Norrie, the 35-year-old will earn himself a semi-final date with either Fabian Marozsan or Juncheng Shang, and history - albeit modest history - suggests that the former world number four can do exactly that.


Tournament so far

Kei Nishikori:

First round: vs. Denis Shapovalov 6-2 6-3
Second round: vs. Karen Khachanov 4-6 6-3 7-5

Cameron Norrie:

First round: vs. Learner Tien 6-3 7-5
Second round: vs. Lorenzo Sonego 6-2 4-6 6-1


Head To Head

Citi Open (2021) - Third round: Nishikori wins 3-6 6-3 6-3
Wimbledon (2019) - Second round: Nishikori wins 6-4 6-4 6-0

Norrie and Nishikori will be squaring off for the third time on the ATP Tour on Friday, and the latter already has two wins under his belt from their previous two top-level singles matches.

Wimbledon 2019 was the site of their inaugural battle in 2019, where Nishikori sealed a straight-sets win over Norrie with a bagel, but the Briton gave the 35-year-old a better run for his money in Washington a couple of years later.

Norrie clinched the first set over Nishikori in that Citi Open battle, but the Japanese still came through in three sets, bringing up 12 break points on the day and converting six of them.


We say: Nishikori to win in three sets

As Norrie alluded to, there was not much to critique about his defensive or offensive display against Sonego in round two, although he should expect a much more stern examination against a revitalised Nishikori.

As the British number one also briefly took part in the doubles tournament, fitness may not be on his side, and we can envisage Nishikori's resurgence continuing as the Japanese edges into the semis.

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