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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's ATP Finals round-robin match between Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Both players will be aiming to bounce back from defeat at the ATP World Tour Finals when Carlos Alcaraz takes on Andrey Rublev on Wednesday.

Alcaraz lost in three sets to Alexander Zverev on Monday, while Rublev was downed in straight sets by his Russian compatriot Daniil Medvedev.


Match preview

Indeed, Alcaraz's meeting with Zverev was the first time that the Spaniard had competed at the ATP Finals, having missed out on last year's tournament due to an abdominal injury. Unsurprisingly for a young man of his tender years, Alcaraz had never previously qualified for the tournament.

Despite coming from a break down to beat the German 7-3 in an opening-set tie-break, Alcaraz's debut at the season-ending championship did not go to plan thereafter, with two-time ATP Finals champion Zverev playing the steadier tennis to come through 6-3 6-4 in the ensuing two sets.

The defeat leaves Alcaraz in a spot of bother as he attempts to progress from the Red Group, but if his most recent activity on Instagram is anything to go by, the 20-year-old is certainly not panicking just yet. "This tournament is different many ways, and one of them is that it allows you to reach the semis despite losing the first match," Alcaraz posted.

However, having now suffered three successive defeats following his premature exits at the Shanghai Masters and Paris Masters to Grigor Dimitrov and Roman Safiullin respectively, Alcaraz will need to call upon every ounce of his world-class abilities and elite mentality in a must-win match against Rublev on Wednesday.

Rublev, on the other hand, is appearing at his fourth consecutive ATP Finals, following his initial breakthrough into the top 10 of the ATP Tour rankings in October 2020.

The 26-year-old is a master of consistency having finally completed the set in terms of reaching quarter-finals at all four Grand Slam's when making it to the last eight at Wimbledon earlier this year, while he was eliminated by Casper Ruud in the semi-finals of this competition last year.

However, Rublev's 0-9 record at Grand Slam quarter-finals makes him the male player of the Open Era with the most appearances at that stage without ever progressing to a semi-final, but he finally won his first ATP Masters 1000 title when defeating Holger Rune at the Monte-Carlo Masters earlier this year.

After beating his good friend Medvedev in the round-robin stage last year, the 2021 US Open champion gained revenge against his fellow Russian on Monday, winning 6-4 6-2 in only 91 minutes. Rublev made several uncharacteristic unforced errors to drop serve in the seventh game of the first set, before failing to capitalise on seven break points across Medvedev's next two service games.

This had a clear impact on the second set, with Rublev broken at the very beginning before succumbing once again later on. As such, neither player can afford to lose when they meet in Turin on Wednesday, otherwise they will be eliminated from the tournament with one match to spare.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 7-6[3] 3-6 4-6

Andrey Rublev:

Round robin: vs. Daniil Medvedev 4-6 2-6


Head To Head

Abu Dhabi (2022) - Semi-finals: Rublev def. Alcaraz 6-2 6-1

Surprisingly, Rublev and Alcaraz have never faced each other on the ATP Tour before, with their only ever meeting coming in an exhibition match in Abu Dhabi in December last year.

Like the ATP Finals in Turin, the unranked tournament was played on a hard court, with Rublev surprisingly dominating his opponent 6-2 6-1 before losing in three sets to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final.

However, this was Alcaraz's first match since tearing an abdominal muscle at the Paris Masters six weeks prior, which caused him to miss last year's ATP Finals. While Rublev may take confidence from defeating his forthcoming opponent before, the Spaniard will almost certainly be fitter and more motivated for a match of more importance.


We say: Alcaraz to win in straight sets

By his own extremely high standards, Alcaraz has suffered a dip in form since winning Wimbledon in July, but he will be determined not to bow out at the opening stage at his debut ATP Finals appearance.

Rublev is always a tough opponent for anyone and is capable of playing some sublime tennis on his day, but he lacks the ball-striking power of Alcaraz and could be blasted off the court if the Spaniard can rediscover his radar.

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Read more about Carlos Alcaraz Andrey Rublev Daniil Medvedev Alexander Zverev Grigor Dimitrov Roman Safiullin Holger Rune Casper Ruud Stefanos Tsitsipas Tennis
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