A potential semi-final spot awaits Casper Ruud or Andrey Rublev at the ATP World Tour Finals when they face off in Friday's round-robin match.
Although the Russian player needs the stars to align to progress from the John Newcombe Group, having lost to Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets, Ruud could advance by defeating the eighth seed and Zverev beating Alcaraz.
Match preview
Although Ruud did little wrong against Zverev in match two in Turin, the two-time Finals champion was just better when it mattered to notch a 7-6(3), 6-3 win over the 2022 finalist.
The sixth seed went toe-to-toe with the German superstar in set one to force a tie-break, only to play slack tennis on a few points as the 27-year-old raced into a 6-1 lead in the shootout before closing it out 7-3.
There was a solitary break of serve in the second, going to Zverev, who gave Ruud nothing on his deliveries to close out the match in 86 minutes, leaving the 2022 runner-up 1-1 heading into a decisive encounter with Rublev.
Having converted four of four break opportunities in match one against Alcaraz, the Norwegian player could not muster one chance on the Zverev serve last time out, a situation he hopes to avoid against his Russian opponent on Friday.
Ruud has never suffered round-robin elimination, advancing to the semis in 2021 and going one better two years ago before losing to Novak Djokovic in 2022, and he hopes to enhance the possibility of continuing that run by defeating an off-form opponent.
The Russian player came into the Finals in underwhelming form, underlined by second-round losses in Shanghai and Paris, having made the 2023 final in the former and semis in the latter 12 months ago.
Straight-set losses to Zverev and a far-from-100% Alcaraz have continued the Russian's below-par results at the backend of 2024, but he hopes to snap that losing run against Ruud.
Given his superiority over the Norwegian player, the 27-year-old aims to improve his 5-2 advantage against the 12-time ATP Tour champion in their eighth meeting, thus improving his outside chances of advancing from the round-robin stage.
Success for Rublev in two sets and Zverev beating Alcaraz in straights means qualification for the second spot will be determined by the percentage of round-robin games won by the Russian, Alcaraz and Ruud.
However, the 16-time tour winner must end an ongoing six-match losing run at the season-ending event dating to 2022 to have a chance of involvement in Saturday's semi-finals.
Tournament so far
Casper Ruud:
Round robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6-1 7-5
Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-7[3] 3-6
Andrey Rublev:
Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 4–6 4–6
Round robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 3–6 6–7[8]
Head To Head
Bastad (2023) - Final: Rublev 7-6(3) 6-0
ATP Finals (2022) - Semi-final: Ruud 6-2 6-4
ATP Finals (2021) - Round robin: Ruud 2-6 7-5 7-6(5)
Monte-Carlo Masters (2021) - Semi-final: Rublev 6-3 7-5
Australian Open (2021) - Fourth round: Rublev 6-2 7-6(3) ret
Hamburg (2020) - Semi-final: Rublev 6-4 6-2
Hamburg (2019) - Round of 16: Rublev 3-6 7-5 6-3
Although Rublev leads their head-to-head 5-2, Ruud's two victories have come in their previous three meetings.
Friday will mark the players' third encounter at the ATP Finals, with the Norwegian claiming wins in the 2021 round-robin and semis two years ago.
That 2022 loss began Rublev's winless run at the year-end tournament, and he bids to snap his unwanted 0-6 streak by beating the Norwegian.
Since beating Jannik Sinner in Canada, Rublev is 0-4 against top-10 opponents (3-5 in 2024), which pales in comparison to Ruud's 5-3 record this season.
We say: Ruud to win in two sets
Despite Rublev's motivation to end his losing streak at the year-end tournament, Ruud's marginally superior performances in Turin should see the Norwegian eke out a third tour-level success against the Russian.
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