On Saturday, Jannik Sinner will become the first-ever Italian to play in the semi-finals of the ATP World Tour Finals when he takes on Daniil Medvedev in front of the Turin faithful.
Sinner sailed through the Green group with a perfect 3-0 record to make the knockout stages, while Medvedev was pipped to top spot in the Red group by Carlos Alcaraz owing to a straight-sets loss to the Spaniard.
Match preview
Even before the first serve left Sinner's racquet in Thursday's contest with fellow protege Holger Rune, the 22-year-old was safe in the knowledge that he would make history for his nation no matter what, having strolled past Stefanos Tsitsipas before denting Novak Djokovic's hopes of retaining his title.
Sinner was also rooting against Djokovic on Thursday afternoon, as the Italian would have been guaranteed a place in the semi-finals with a match to spare if the defending champion lost a set against Polish alternate Hubert Hurkacz, who sent Sinner through to the final four by virtue of levelling the match against the Serbian.
Having already been confirmed as the first Italian man to reach the semi-finals of the year-end championships, one could have forgiven Sinner for conserving his energy ahead of the weekend's action, but the fourth seed sought perfection and achieved it via a thrilling three-setter.
With two hours and 32 minutes on the clock, Sinner downed his Danish foe 6–2, 5–7, 6–4 - avenging two previous losses to Rune at the top level - to make it three-for-three in the Green group, thereby qualifying in first place and also ensuring that Djokovic would be present in the semis alongside him.
Before Sinner can dream of a possible reunion with the 24-time major champion - who meets Alcaraz in his knockout battle - the Turin poster boy must prolong his serving dominance if he is to eliminate Medvedev from the penultimate hurdle, having won 84% points behind his first serve against Rune in addition to hitting 36 winners.
As was the case with his trailblazing foe, Medvedev knew that the result of his contest with Alcaraz would largely pale into insignificance - for himself at least - on Friday afternoon, as back-to-back wins over Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev made sure of a top-two finish for the world number three.
Medvedev's hard-court supremacy came to the fore when the two men locked horns at the US Open two months ago, but a fired-up Alcaraz - who was playing for his own place in the semi-finals - earned a small token of revenge by sinking the Russian 6-4 6-4 with 80 minutes played.
A double fault on the very first point of the match set the tone for Medvedev, who failed to make the most of a 40-15 lead on Alcaraz's serve in the fourth game and did not earn another opportunity to break the Wimbledon champion, also losing his serve on a double fault in the ninth game of the second set.
Only winning 44% of points behind his second serve was untypical of Medvedev too, as the 27-year-old accepted second place in the group behind Alcaraz, although the Russian may be somewhat grateful to have avoided a last-four meeting with Djokovic, who finished as runner-up to Sinner in the Green group.
Furthermore, from Medvedev's two previous semi-final ties at the ATP Finals, the Russian has won both of them - sinking Rafael Nadal in 2020 and Casper Ruud one year later - but some scripts already being written for the soaring Sinner to lift the trophy aloft in front of the home contingent.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
Round robin: vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas 6–4, 6–4
Round robin: vs. Novak Djokovic 7-5 6-7[5] 7-6[2]
Round robin: vs. Holger Rune 6–2, 5–7, 6–4
Daniil Medvedev:
Round robin: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-2
Round robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 7-6[7] 6-4
Round robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 4-6 4-6
Head To Head
Open 13 (2020) - Last 16: Medvedev wins 1-6 6-1 6-2
Open 13 (2021) - Quarter-finals: Medvedev wins 6-2 6-4
ATP Finals (2021) - Round robin: Medvedev wins 6-0 6-7[5] 7-6[8]
Vienna Open (2022) - Quarter-finals: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-2
Rotterdam Open (2023) - Final: Medvedev wins 5-7 6-2 6-2
Miami Open (2023) - Final: Medvedev wins 7-5 6-3
China Open (2023) - Final: Sinner wins 7-6[2] 7-6[2]
Vienna Open (2023) - Final: Sinner wins 7-6[7] 4-6 6-3
Many a hard court affair has already taken place between Medvedev and Sinner, who have clashed eight times on the ATP Tour on the surface, and the Russian leads the way in the head-to-head standings by quite some distance with six victories to two.
Each of the players' first six contests ended with Medvedev coming up trumps, including in the round-robin phase of the 2021 ATP Finals - where he posted a bagel over Sinner in the first set - and in the finals of this year's Rotterdam and Miami Opens.
However, Sinner managed to even things up in two subsequent showpiece events, sinking the former US Open champion to win titles at the China Open and Vienna Open, and four of the five tie-breakers to have been fought between the two men have gone the way of the Italian.
We say: Medvedev to win in three sets
Few know better than Sinner about Medvedev's returning and passing shot dominance on hard courts, although the Italian has got the better of the 27-year-old in their last two showdowns and will have both home support and an extra recuperation period on his side.
Sinner's hopes of year-end glory may be all but extinguished should he get off to a slow start, though - Medvedev is 42-0 on hard courts this year when winning the first set - and while the Russian will no doubt be pushed all the way, we have faith in his experience and exceptional defence to carry him through to the final.
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