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Preview: Australian Open: Naomi Osaka vs. Belinda Bencic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Australian Open: Naomi Osaka vs. Belinda Bencic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Friday's Australian Open third-round match between Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Returning to the Australian Open third round for the first time since giving birth, Naomi Osaka faces fellow new mum Belinda Bencic in Friday's third-round match.

The two-time champion Down Under claimed a comeback success over 20th seed Karolina Muchova on Wednesday, and she aims to make it into the fourth round for the first time since her successful run to the title in 2021.


Match preview

Preview: Australian Open: Naomi Osaka vs. Belinda Bencic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

The elation was unmistakable after Osaka got the better of Muchova at Melbourne Park in Wednesday's second-round match, defeating the No. 20 seed 1-6, 6-1, 6-3.

Success against the Czechia player means the four-time Grand Slam champion is back in the third round of any major since her 2022 run in Australia, where she exited disappointingly despite entering as the defending champion.

Much has changed since, with the 27-year-old becoming a mother and returning from an extended hiatus last season.

However, Osaka could not make it beyond the tournament opener in Australia and exited in round two at the French Open, despite nearly ousting Iga Swiatek in Paris, Wimbledon and the final leading event in the United States.

Having defeated Caroline Garcia, against whom she lost 12 months ago in Australia, in round one and beaten Muchova, against whom she exited at Flushing Meadows in 2024, the feeling in the Japan player's camp should be positive heading into a sixth match-up with Bencic.

Preview: Australian Open: Naomi Osaka vs. Belinda Bencic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

The Swiss player only returned to competitive action last October, six months after becoming a mother, but she is one victory away from reaching the fourth round in Australia for the third time and in consecutive appearances at the event.

Bencic has already defeated seeded Jelena Ostapenko in two sets in round one before following that with another straight-set victory on Wednesday against Dutchwoman Suzan Lamens, giving the former world No. 4 much-needed momentum heading into round three.

The 27-year-old Swiss woman entered this year's tournament having won 15 matches Down Under; only at the US Open (21) has she secured more Grand Slam matches and has added two to that number, improving to 17-10 before Friday.

Aiming to return to the fourth round to match her 2016 and 2023 feats, Bencic must defeat a two-time champion in Osaka to notch an 18th career win at the Australian Open.


Tournament so far

Naomi Osaka:

First round: vs. Caroline Garcia 6-3 3-6 5-3
Second round: vs. Karolina Muchova 1-6 6-1 6-3

Belinda Bencic:

First round: vs. Jelena Ostapenko 6-3 7-6[6]
Second round: vs. Suzan Lamens 6-1 7-6[3]


Head To Head

Miami (2022) - Semi-final: Osaka 4-6 6-3 6-4

US Open (2019) - Fourth round: Bencic 7-5 6-4

Madrid (2019) - Quarter-finals: Bencic 3-6 6-2 7-5

Indian Wells (2019) - Round of 16: Bencic 6-3 6-1

Pelham (2013) - Round of 32: Osaka 6-3 6-3

Bencic leads the head-to-head 3-2 heading into her sixth match-up with Osaka, aiming to secure a fourth success over the two-time champ in Australia.

Although she won their last encounter in Miami three years back, that success snapped a three-match losing run to the Swiss woman, who notched that winning run in consecutive meetings in 2019 to overturn a 2013 loss to the Japanese player.

Friday represents their second Slam meeting; Bencic got the better of then-defending US Open champion Osaka in New York six years back and aims for a repeat at the Aussie Open.


We say: Osaka to win in three sets

Osaka has taken the long road in rounds one and two, and we expect another three-setter against Bencic.

The two-time Australian Open champion entered this year's event with an 80% win rate Down Under, outdoing her 79% success rate at the US Open, highlighting her expertise in both hard-court majors when it all comes together.

With momentum seemingly building and Osaka further along than Bencic since returning to the women's tour, the four-time Grand Slam champion should edge Friday's match in three, thus levelling her head-to-head with the Swiss player.

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