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Preview: Cameron Norrie vs. Casper Ruud - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Cameron Norrie vs. Casper Ruud - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Australian Open third-round match between Cameron Norrie and Casper Ruud, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Great Britain's last singles hope in the 2024 Australian Open, Cameron Norrie squares off with Casper Ruud in Saturday's mouthwatering third-round battle at the John Cain Arena.

The British number one came from two sets down to defeat Italian qualifier Giulio Zeppieri in the second round, while Ruud also came through a five-set spectacular with Australia's Max Purcell.


Match preview

With none of Jack Draper, Katie Boulter or Emma Raducanu managing to emerge triumphant from their second-round affairs on Thursday, Norrie is left single-handedly flying the flag for the Britons, although he was on the verge of joining his compatriots on an early flight home.

Taking on Italian qualifier Zeppieri after a simple straight-sets win over Juan Pablo Varillas in his opening encounter, Norrie was powerless to defend against the 22-year-old's thunderous forehand in the earliest exchanges and was also left to bemoan inopportune double faults as he fell two sets down.

However, the opening of the heavens proved to be just what the doctor ordered for Norrie, as following the first weather delay of the contest, the 19th seed produced an astonishing fightback to prevail 3-6 6-7[4] 6-2 6-4 6-4 in three hours and 29 minutes, taking his first match point as Zeppieri returned into the net.

After working wonders with his forehand for so long, Zeppieri undercooked one such shot to gift Norrie the pivotal break in the fifth set as the British number one came from 2-0 down to win for the third time in his career, having previously defeated Roberto Bautista Agut and Diego Schwartzman in such circumstances.

Three of Norrie's four Grand Slam tournaments in 2023 ended in the third round, though, and the 28-year-old is yet to advance to the last 16 of the Australian Open, losing at this stage to Rafael Nadal in 2021 and Jiri Lehecka in last year's edition.

As is the case with his British foe, Norwegian trailblazer Ruud also made light work of his Melbourne opener - dropping just five games en route to victory against Albert Ramos Vinolas - but the combination of a big-hitting Max Purcell and a fired-up home crowd was a different proposition indeed.

A monstrous 88 winners from the Purcell racquet flew past Ruud, who could not even reach half of the Australian's tally - registering 42 himself - but with numerous winners came an abundance of mistakes from Purcell, who struck 62 unforced errors compared to a mere 18 from the Scandinavian.

The home favourite still managed to save one match point to the delight of the crowd - who were treated to a total of 49 aces throughout the mesmerising battle - but with three hours and 50 minutes on the board, Ruud witnessed Purcell send a forehand long in the final 10-point tie-breaker to win 6-3 6-7[5] 6-3 3-6 7-6[7].

Bidding to force his way back into the top 10 after underwhelming displays in 2023 - barring reaching the final of the French Open - victory for Ruud would see the 11th seed match his best-ever Australian Open result, having got as far as round four in 2021 before being forced to retire against Andrey Rublev.

Either Alexander Zverev or Alex Michelsen will await the winner of this tie in the fourth round of the Australian Open, and while Ruud - a two-time Roland Garros finalist - joked that the organisers may need to lay clay over the surface to aid his progression, he has already asserted his dominance over Norrie on hard courts.


Tournament so far

Cameron Norrie:

First round: vs. Juan Pablo Varillas 6-4 6-4 6-2
Second round: vs. Giulio Zeppieri 3-6 6-7[4] 6-2 6-4 6-4

Casper Ruud:

First round: vs. Albert Ramos Vinolas 6-1 6-3 6-1
Second round: vs. Max Purcell 6-3 6-7[5] 6-3 3-6 7-6[7]


Head To Head

Miami Open (2022) - Fourth round: Ruud wins 6-3 6-4
ATP Finals (2021) - Round Robin: Ruud wins 1-6 6-3 6-4
San Diego Open (2021) - Final: Ruud wins 6-0 6-2

Three times Norrie and Ruud have locked horns at the highest level - all of which have come on hard courts - and three times Ruud has come out on the winning side, a streak which began in the final of the 2021 San Diego Open.

On that day, Norrie suffered a bagel in his first-ever set against Ruud, who took just 62 minutes to win his maiden - and only - hard-court title to date, before the Norwegian recovered from a disastrous opening set to prevail in the 2021 ATP Finals Round Robin stage.

The pair have only clashed once since that year-end contest, clashing on hard surface outdoors in the fourth round of the 2022 Miami Open, where Ruud once again got the job done in straight sets despite winning just 34% of points behind his second serve on the day.


We say: Ruud to win in four sets

While Norrie's returning game improved tenfold in the second half of his showdown with Zeppieri, Ruud had no right to reach some of the shots he did against the aggressive Purcell, and the Scandinavian has had Norrie's number ever since their inaugural contest.

Fitness levels will no doubt have a huge bearing on Saturday's result following their respective five-setters - an area where Norrie typically excels - but Ruud has also served exceptionally well throughout his opening two contests and can end GB's hopes of another Grand Slam singles crown for another few months at least.

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Read more about Cameron Norrie Casper Ruud giulio zeppieri Max Purcell Juan Pablo Varillas Albert Ramos Vinolas Jack Draper Katie Boulter Emma Raducanu Roberto Bautista Agut Diego Schwartzman Rafael Nadal Jiri Lehecka Andrey Rublev Alexander Zverev Alex Michelsen Tennis
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