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Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Casper Ruud - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Novak Djokovic vs. Casper Ruud - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Sunday's French Open men's singles final between Novak Djokovic and Casper Ruud, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

A record-breaking 23rd Grand Slam title is on the line for Novak Djokovic as he bids to win the French Open for the third time against Norway's Casper Ruud in Sunday's men's singles final.

The Serbian defeated a physically-impaired Carlos Alcaraz in four sets to reach the showpiece event, while his Scandinavian counterpart put Alexander Zverev to the sword in three.


Match preview

With Mike Tyson among several notable names in attendance, Djokovic and Alcaraz initially both put up a fight that the former world heavyweight champion would have been proud of, displaying wonderful movement across the court to take a set apiece in the early exchanges.

However, as Alcaraz began to suffer from cramps - even forfeiting one of his service games - a merciless Djokovic ran away with the semi-final, marching to a 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1 triumph with three hours and 23 minutes on the board.

While Alcaraz was evidently not moving at his best in the third and fourth sets, Djokovic refused to let even a hint of complacency creep in - as any 22-time major winner would - restricting his Spanish counterpart to just six points behind his own serve in the final set and firing eight aces on the day.

Another successful endeavour at Roland Garros and Djokovic's reward will be another slice of Grand Slam history; the 35-year-old - who won the French Open in 2016 and 2021 - sits on a joint-record 22 major men's singles titles with Rafael Nadal and can steer clear of his absent counterpart at the top of the Open Era charts with another triumph on Sunday.

Then again, Djokovic has lost more French Open finals than he has won - falling short in the 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2020 showpiece events, three of which were against the 'King of clay' Nadal - but he has an added incentive to right those wrongs here, as victory would also see him displace Alcaraz at the top of the ATP rankings.

Standing in Djokovic's way of history is a man who has won nine of his 10 ATP Tour titles on clay, as world number four Ruud continued his quest to go one better at Roland-Garros with an emphatic triumph over Alexander Zverev in Friday's second semi-final.

Facing a foe whose French Open dreams were cruelly dashed by an ankle injury in last year's semi-finals, Ruud ensured that there would be no fairytale ending for Zverev, working his ferocious forehand to magnificent effect in a 6-3 6-4 6-0 beating.

Forever thriving under the cosh, the Scandinavian - who lost last year's French Open final to Nadal - saved eight of the nine break points that he faced against Zverev while clinching six of the 10 he brought up, and a third major final in five tournaments now awaits Ruud, who is still waiting for his first Grand Slam title.

A record of 16-11 in 2023 tells the tale of Ruud's challenging start to the year, but the 24-year-old - who also bested Danish teenager in an all-Scandinavian quarter-final - will not be taken lightly by Djokovic, even if the form book and head-to-head column seemingly points towards another afternoon of heartbreak.


Tournament so far

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-3 6-2 7-6[1]
Second round: vs. Marton Fucsovics 7-6[2] 6-0 6-3
Third round: vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6[4] 7-6[5] 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Juan Pablo Varillas 6-3 6-2 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Karen Khachanov 4-6 7-6[0] 6-2 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1

Casper Ruud:

First round: vs. Elias Ymer 6-4 6-3 6-2
Second round: vs. Giulio Zeppieri 6-3 6-2 4-6 7-5
Third round: vs. Zhang Zhizhen 4-6 6-4 6-1 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Nicolas Jarry 7-6[3] 7-5 7-5
Quarter-final: vs. Holger Rune 6-1 6-2 3-6 6-3
Semi-final: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-3 6-4 6-0


Head To Head

Italian Open (2020) - Semi-finals: Djokovic wins 7-5 6-3
ATP Finals (2021) - Group stage: Djokovic wins 7-6[4] 6-2
Italian Open (2022) - Semi-finals: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-3
ATP Finals (2022) - Final: Djokovic wins 7-5 6-3

Djokovic and Ruud's head-to-head record makes for quite pleasant reading from an organisational viewpoint, but it is certainly not pleasing to look at for the Norwegian, who has tried and failed to beat the 22-time major winner four times down the years.

Incredibly, all four meetings between Djokovic and Ruud have taken place in Italy, including a pair of Italian Open semi-final clashes in 2020 and 2022, both of which the Serbian won in straight sets on the clay.

A 2021 ATP Finals group-stage showdown was sandwiched in between those two clashes, which Djokovic won again in two, before the duo most recently renewed hostilities to learn who would be crowned the 2022 ATP Finals champion, and the script would be followed once more in a straight-sets triumph for Djokovic.


We say: Novak Djokovic to win in four sets

While Ruud's vicious forehand is capable of troubling even the most competent players on the tour, facing one of the best returners that the game has ever had to offer in Djokovic should prove a bridge too far.

The Serbian may finally be forced to drop a set against the clay specialist, but by sticking to the gameplan which has served him well throughout the tournament, Djokovic should be celebrating Grand Slam title number 23 on Sunday afternoon.

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Read more about Casper Ruud Novak Djokovic Carlos Alcaraz Alexander Zverev Mike Tyson Rafael Nadal Aleksandar Kovacevic Marton Fucsovics Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Juan Pablo Varillas Karen Khachanov Nicolas Jarry Holger Rune Zhang Zhizhen giulio zeppieri Elias Ymer Tennis
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