Alex de Minaur, who faces Mariano Navone in Tuesday's first-round match, needs a deep run at the Paris Masters to strengthen his qualification prospects for next month's ATP Finals in Turin.
The Australian player and ninth seed at the final ATP 1000 event of 2024 is the favourite to advance at Navone's expense but must play high-quality tennis afterwards to reach the tournament's final stages.
Match preview
Despite physical challenges since injuring his hip at Wimbledon, the Australian No. 1 did his Turin chances no harm after a deep run in Vienna.
The ninth seed in Paris followed his quarter-final run at the ATP 250 event in Antwerp by surging to the semis in Austria's ATP 500 event last week before falling to eventual runner-up Karen Khachanov.
Currently ninth in the Live Rankings, about 200 points below Andrey Rublev in eighth and 300 adrift of out-of-form Casper Ruud, the 25-year-old should back himself for a maiden appearance at next month's Finals — contingent on the stars aligning this week.
Although "Demon" enters the Paris event with a 44-15 record this season, his 9-5 win-loss statistic at 1000 competitions have typically seen him exit in the round of 16 — Indian Wells, Miami and Rome — while he made the last eight in Monte-Carlo before exiting to Novak Djokovic and suffered his only tournament-opening defeat to Rafael Nadal in Madrid.
Although this season's precedent suggests otherwise, a deeper run than anything shown in 2024 will improve his Turin ambition.
Despite De Minaur being the favourite to advance, Navone's freedom from expectations could make him a dangerous opponent.
The world No. 45 entered the Paris event with an 18-22 record this season, with the 23-year-old's latest tour involvement a tournament-opening loss at the hands of Miomir Kecmanovic in Vienna.
Navone's only Masters 1000 success of 2024 came in Madrid, where he eliminated Alexei Popyrin in straight sets, and the Argentine aims for another victory over Popyrin's compatriot.
That outcome is easier said than done, especially for a player untested against top-10 opponents, with the upcoming match with De Minaur his first.
With the Argentine entering the Paris event on a 0-5 losing record at ATP 1000 events, it remains to be seen if that unwanted streak ends against the nine-time ATP Tour champion.
Head To Head
Both players will face off on Tuesday for the first time, marking Navone's first encounter with a player ranked in the top 10.
Including his US Open results, De Minaur's 8-3 win-loss record in the last couple of months (4-2 post-Flushing Meadows) points to a player returning to form as he aims for a deep run in Paris.
We say: De Minaur to win in two sets
While his quarter of the draw comprises Jack Draper, Jiri Lehecka and Taylor Fritz — all potential third-round opponents — and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner and American Ben Shelton — possible last-eight opponents — De Minaur cannot worry about those match-ups yet.
Focused on taking each match as it comes, we expect him to overcome the challenge of Navone and advance to the second round, where he will face Kecmanovic.
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