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Preview: Maria Sakkari vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Maria Sakkari vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Miami Open quarter-final between Maria Sakkari and Elena Rybakina, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Having both survived an evening of upsets at the Miami Open, eighth seed Maria Sakkari and last year's runner-up Elena Rybakina square off in Tuesday's intriguing quarter-final in the women's singles event.

Sakkari advanced to the last eight courtesy of a walkover win over Anna Kalinskaya, while fourth seed Rybakina fended off the threat of Madison Keys in the last 16.


Match preview

Advancing to the last 16 of the Miami Open without dropping a single set in her opening clashes with Yuan Yue and Dayana Yastremska, Sakkari was scheduled to battle Russian 22nd seed Kalinskaya for the right to face Rybakina in the last eight, only for injury to strike.

Owing to a problem with her right thigh, Kalinskaya was forced to withdraw from the contest as Sakkari strode into the quarter-finals, thereby offering her Greek foe some much-needed extended recuperation time as she bids to go one better than her Indian Wells adventure.

Thoroughly enjoying life under the wing of new coach David Witt - a former trainer for Jessica Pegula who began working with Sakkari at the start of the month - the eighth seed reached her first final of the year and fourth WTA 1000 showpiece overall in California, where Iga Swiatek proved too strong on the day.

However, the reigning world number one and US Open champion Coco Gauff were both the victim of shock defeats in Monday's fourth-round showdowns - losing to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Caroline Garcia respectively - meaning that two gigantic obstacles in Sakkari's quest for Miami stardom have been removed.

The 28-year-old already has one Miami Open semi-final on her CV from the 2021 edition, where she was denied a spot in the showpiece match by Bianca Andreescu, but she is yet to earn back-to-back semi-final appearances in Masters tournaments and now faces her toughest Florida examination yet.

While Sakkari could afford to put her feet up on Monday, 2023 runner-up Rybakina - defeated by the absent Petra Kvitova in last year's final - earned her first straight-sets win of the 2024 edition over American 17th seed Keys, triumphing 6-3 7-5 with one hour and 24 minutes on the board.

Danish qualifier Clara Tauson and Keys's compatriot Taylor Townsend had both managed to take a set off Rybakina - albeit to little consequence - before the former Wimbledon winner came up trumps in the battle of the big servers with Keys, who temporarily delayed Rybakina's progress in the second set with a break back to 3-3.

There would be no staggering comeback from the home favourite, though, as Rybakina booked her spot in the last eight with a fifth ace of the day and has now reached the quarter-finals in eight of her last 10 Masters tournaments, including each of the last four.

Of course, the fourth seed - the highest-ranked player left in the competition - withdrew from the Dubai Tennis Championships before the quarter-finals owing to illness, which also prevented her from going for Indian Wells glory, but she is gradually reverting to type and now boasts 20 wins for the 2024 season.

Only Swiatek and Emma Navarro have also hit that tally of triumphs on this year's WTA Tour so far, and an all-Kazakhstan affair with Yulia Putintseva - who faces Victoria Azarenka in her last-eight battle - could be on the cards for Rybakina in the Miami semis.


Tournament so far

Maria Sakkari:

Second round: vs. Yuan Yue 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Dayana Yastremska 7-5 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Anna Kalinskaya w/o

Elena Rybakina:

Second round: vs. Clara Tauson 3-6 7-5 6-4
Third round: vs. Taylor Townsend 6-3 6-7[3] 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Madison Keys 6-3 7-5


Head To Head

WTA Finals (2023) - Group stage: Rybakina wins 6-0 6-7[4] 7-6[2]
Indian Wells Masters (2022) - Quarter-finals: Sakkari wins 7-5 6-4
St Petersburg Open (2020) - Semi-finals: Rybakina wins 3-6 7-5 6-1

Tuesday's quarter-final will represent the fourth showdown between Sakkari and Rybakina on the WTA Tour, and the latter proudly boasts a 2-1 record over the Greek from their previous three encounters.

Those successes have come in the first and most recent meetings between the pair, as Sakkari fought back from a first-set bagel in last year's WTA Finals group battle, only to succumb to a three-set defeat to the Kazakhstani three years on from a similar loss at the St Petersburg Open.

While Rybakina is yet to overcome Sakkari in straight sets, the eighth seed's sole win over the former Wimbledon winner coincidentally came in a Masters quarter-final two years ago, triumphing 7-5 6-4 in the last eight at Indian Wells before losing to Swiatek in her first WTA 1000 trophy match.


We say: Sakkari to win in three sets

At the start of the Miami Open, Rybakina was evidently still not completely back to normal in the wake of her troublesome illness, whereas Sakkari is thriving under her new coaching regime and arrives for Tuesday's quarter-final feeling rather refreshed.

The eighth seed has the defensive tools to frustrate her powerful Kazakhstani foe as well, and should fitness levels play a part in the closing stages of an epic contest, we can envisage a rejuvenated Sakkari getting over the line.

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Read more about Maria Sakkari Elena Rybakina Yuan Yue Dayana Yastremska Anna Kalinskaya Clara Tauson Taylor Townsend Madison Keys Jessica Pegula David Witt Iga Swiatek Coco Gauff Caroline Garcia Ekaterina Alexandrova Bianca Andreescu Petra Kvitova Victoria Azarenka Yulia Putintseva Emma Navarro Tennis
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