To win her fourth Qatar Open title, Iga Swiatek must finally outwit Jelena Ostapenko at the fifth time of asking when both women tussle in Friday's semi-final.
Ostapenko overcame a frankly irksome partisan crowd to dispatch Ons Jabeur in straight sets in Thursday's quarter-final, while the second-seeded Swiatek got the better of Elena Rybakina in a rematch of last year's final to extend her winning streak in Doha to 15.
Match preview
For all the hype that preceded Swiatek's Doha rematch with Rybakina on Thursday, the quarter-final was a tad anticlimactic, as the Polish superstar secured a 6-2, 7-5 victory to reach another semi-final in Qatar.
Beating the 2022 Wimbledon champion saw the world No. 2 move level with the Kazakhstani player in their head-to-head at 4-4, having previously trailed 3-1, to retain the dream of a fourth straight title in Doha.
Thursday's success continued the 23-year-old's dominance at the WTA 1000 tournament, with the Polish star becoming the first woman to win 15 on the trot at the event, to seal her 100th career triumph at 1000 tournaments in 121 matches — only Serena Williams reached a century of wins quicker at such events (115).
Swiatek enters Friday's semi-final as the only seeded opponent left in the draw, even if that is no guarantee of a fourth crown, with Ostapenko looming in the last four and a possible final against the in-form Ekaterina Alexandrova.
In an event where the seeded opponents have disappointed, the second seed's ambition for a four-peat has seen her advance to another semi-final in Doha, and it feels fitting that the 23-year-old must overcome Ostapenko to have a chance of claiming a 23rd WTA title.
The Latvian packs a punch in full flow and possesses the game style to trouble Swiatek, setting up a mouthwatering tussle on Friday, as the eight-time tour winner seeks a fifth straight triumph over the world No. 2.
Ostapenko had taken out two seeded opponents in Liudmila Samsonova and Jasmine Paolini in rounds two and three and got the better of an out-of-sorts Jabeur 6-2, 6-2 despite the disturbance from a section of the nearly one-sided crowd.
Regardless, the 27-year-old stayed focused in the quarter-final to dispatch the Tunisian No. 1 and advance to her third semi-final in Doha and first last-four match on the singles tour since last year's successful run in Linz.
Despite entering the first WTA 1000 event with a 1-4 win-loss record this season, four wins on the trot have taken the 2017 French Open champion into the semis at the Qatar Open for the first time since 2022; the former world No. 5 seeks a first title match since 2016, when she lost in three sets to Carla Suarez Navarro.
Defeating the only seeded opponent left in the tournament might make Ostapenko favourite for a ninth WTA crown, and the Latvian star's experience of outwitting the 22-time WTA champion stands her in good stead to halt Swiatek's winning streak in Doha.
Tournament so far
Iga Swiatek:
First round: vs. Bye
Second round: vs. Maria Sakkari 6-3 6-2
Third round: vs. Linda Noskova 6-7[1] 6-4 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Elena Rybakina
Jelena Ostapenko:
First round: vs. Aoi Ito 6-2 6-1
Second round: vs. Liudmila Samsonova 7-6[5] 7-5
Third round: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-2 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Ons Jabeur 6-2 6-2
Head To Head
US Open (2023) - Fourth round: Ostapenko 3-6 6-3 6-1
Dubai (2022) - Round of 16: Ostapenko 4-6 6-1 7-6(4)
Indian Wells (2021) - Round of 16: Ostapenko 6-4 6-3
Birmingham (2019) - Round of 32: Ostapenko 6-0 6-2
Ostapenko leads her head-to-head with Swiatek 4-0, with three wins coming on hard courts, after their first grass-court match-up in 2019.
After the first two meetings went the Latvian player's way in straight sets, the past two encounters have gone the distance despite Swiatek winning the first set.
Ostapenko already claimed a top-10 win this week to defeat Paolini, despite entering the WTA 1000 event with a 1-3 win-loss record in her last four encounters against the elite, and the 27-year-old bids for consecutive victories over such players since 2022, when she notched three straight wins against Swiatek in Dubai, Barbora Krejcikova and Garbine Muguruza (both in Doha).
We say: Swiatek to win in three sets
Despite their peculiarities, Noskova, Rybakina and Ostapenko are somewhat similar on court, with Swiatek intermittently disturbed by heavy-hitting players.
Ostapenko's approach should pose problems for the four-peat-chasing second seed, although the Latvian's success is contingent on executing at a high level for the match's entirety.
Having come this far, the highest-ranked seed left in the WTA 1000 event will back herself to go all the way now, and we expect the Polish star to finally outwit her bete noire to secure a place in the title match.
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