Playing in her first quarter-final since August, Leylah Fernandez will take on the top-seeded player at the Tokyo Open Qinwen Zheng on Friday.
In her previous match, the young Canadian came through in three sets to defeat Varvara Gracheva 6-0, 3-6, 7-5, while Zheng got past Moyuka Uchijima 7-5 6-0.
Match preview
After a difficult opening set in which Uchijima gave Zheng all she could handle, the #1 ranked player in this tournament took control of the match in set #2.
For the match, the 22-year-old had a first-serve winning percentage of 81% while also winning five of her eight break point opportunities on the road to victory.
Friday will be her fourth successive appearance in the quarter-finals of a WTA singles event, and she has not lost at this stage since Aryna Sabalenka beat her in straight sets at the US Open (1-6 2-6).
Zheng has not lost a singles match when winning the opening set since Wimbledon when New Zealand's Lulu Sun pulled off a three-set upset, winning 4-6 6-2 6-4.
So far this year, Zheng has won 61.7% of her service points while winning 76.7% of his service games and 75.9% of his first serves.
She has utilised her big serve to her advantage, hitting 335 aces in 2024 while managing to win 46.2% of her second serves for the year.
It took her another three sets to get it done, but Leylah Fernandez performed when needed to advance into the last eight of this tournament.
After dominating the first set against Gracheva, the Canadian displayed great power when needed, winning 69% of her second serves to take the match.
This is the furthest the 22-year-old had made it at a singles event since the Cincinnati Open earlier this year, when Jessica Pegula took her out in a thrilling three-set quarter-final.
Her best finish on the hard court this year came back in February when she made the last eight of the Qatar TotalEnergies Open, where Elena Rybakina eliminated her in straight sets.
In 2024, Fernandez has hit over 200 double faults and just slightly more than 100 aces and has managed to win 65.5% of her first serves.
Fernandez has won slightly above 40% of her second serves on the year and been able to save just under 60% of her break points on the WTA tour.
Tournament so far
Qinwen Zheng:
Round of 16: vs. Moyuka Uchijima 7-5 6-0
Leylah Fernandez:
Round of 32: vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich 5-7 6-2 5-2 walkover
Round of 16: vs. Varvara Gracheva 6-0 3-6 7-5
Head To Head
Monterrey Open (2022) - Second Round: Fernandez wins 6-1 4-6 7-6
Qatar TotalEnergies Open (2024) - Third Round: Fernandez wins 7-5 6-3
Wuhan Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Zheng wins 5-7 6-3 6-0
When these two first met in Mexico two years ago, Zheng was her own worst enemy, registering 10 double faults, while the Canadian won 59% of her second serves.
In Qatar earlier this year, second serves made a massive difference as Fernandez won 67% of hers, with Zheng only claiming 39%.
At the Wuhan Open, Zheng won 74% of her first serves, with Fernandez only claiming 61%, while the reigning Olympic singles champion had a decisive edge on second serves, boasting a winning percentage of 62%, with the Canadian only at 37%.
We say: Zheng to win in three sets
This may be the toughest match to call in the quarter-finals, but we believe the momentum Zheng has coming into this encounter and her consistently strong finishes will give her a slight edge against a worthy opponent.
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