An 11th meeting between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz was anticipated in the Shanghai Masters semi-final, only for Tomas Machac to stun the Spaniard in Thursday's quarter-final to set up a last-four match with the world No. 1.
Both players battle on Saturday, keen to secure a place in Sunday's decider as the penultimate Masters 1000 event of 2024 nears its culmination.
Match preview
Sinner was always the favourite to get the better of Daniil Medvedev, and the Italian stormed to a 6-1, 6-4 success against the Russian to tie their head-to-head 7-7.
Having been defeated by the former No. 1 in six straight matches at the start of their rivalry, the 23-year-old has notched seven triumphs in their next eight meetings on the ATP Tour, including this year's incredible Australian Open final comeback from two sets down.
Beating Medvedev, who struggled with a shoulder issue in Thursday's quarter-final, means Sinner has advanced to his 11th semi-final in 2024 — no player has more last-four appearances on Tour — and becomes the first player since Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2022 to appear in five semis at Masters 1000 events.
The upshot of recording his 63rd victory of the year now sees him battle an in-form Machac for only the second time, with the Czech player's success over Alcaraz guaranteeing the Italian player the No. 1 ranking at the end of the year.
Fresh off his 51st victory at Masters 1000 events on hard courts, Sinner is the undoubted favourite heading into Saturday's last-four tussle with a confident player who packs a punch on both wings.
Observers wanted a rematch of the thrilling Sinner-Alcaraz final in Beijing, but they must make do with Machac taking on the season's best player and year-end No. 1.
On the evidence of his stunning run to the semis on his Shanghai Masters debut, where he has overcome Tommy Paul from a set down and stunned the four-time Grand Slam champion 7-6(5), 7-5, a thrilling last-four match-up is promised.
His stunning win over the Spaniard ended the world No. 2's 12-match winning streak and marked the 23-year-old's third triumph over a top-10 player this season, following victories over Andrey Rublev at the Miami Masters and Novak Djokovic in Geneva.
Although he defeated Djokovic at the Geneva Open, beating Alcaraz in Shanghai is the grandest victory of Machac's embryonic career.
Having become the fourth lowest-ranked player to make the semis at this event — following Kei Nishikori (No. 47, 2011), Feliciano Lopez (41, 2009) and Juan Monaco (41, 2010) — and the first player outside the top 30 since a 32nd-ranked Giles Simon in 2016, the world No. 33 now aims to stun Sinner to advance to the Sunday's championship match.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Taro Daniel 6-1 6-4
Third round: vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-7[3] 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Ben Shelton 6-4 7-6[1]
Quarter-final: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-1 6-4
Tomas Machac:
First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Alejandro Davidovich 1-6 7-6[3] 6-4
Third round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Tommy Paul 3-6 6-4 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 7-6[5] 7-5
Head To Head
Miami Masters (2024) - Quarter-final: Sinner 6-4 6-2
Sinner claimed success in his only match-up with Machac en route to his title in Miami, notching a straightforward win in two sets.
The Italian enters Saturday's semi-final with a 43-3 hard-court record in 2024, with Alcaraz (twice — Indian Wells and Beijing) and Rublev (Canada Masters) the only players to beat him on the surface this season, underlining the top seed's consistency this season.
We say: Sinner to win in three sets
While Alcaraz is tremendously talented and plays with utmost variety on Tour, he remains susceptible to upsets like the one he suffered against Machac on Thursday.
Sinner's adeptness at adapting to opponents with effective weapons on the forehand and backhand wing and ability to grind out victories even when he does not play high-level tennis should see him edge Machac and advance to a maiden Shanghai final.
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