World No. 13 Tommy Paul hopes to avoid an early upset at the Shanghai Masters when he takes on Fabio Fognini in Friday's second-round match.
The American has had a mixed time, albeit from two matches, since the US Open but aims to build momentum at the 1000 event at the expense of the experienced veteran.
Match preview
Unlike most, Paul has had little match action since his US Open exit to Jannik Sinner in early September.
The three-time Tour-level champion was part of the party in Tokyo but exited early to Tomas Machac in three sets after beating Matteo Arnaldi in his tournament opener.
Seeking a response to that loss, the 27-year-old aims for a deep run in Shanghai, keen to avoid another round-two loss at a 1000 event following a shock loss to Italian opponent Flavio Cobolli in Cincinnati in the lead-up to the final Grand Slam of 2024.
Although he has exited early in consecutive Masters 1000 tournaments — eliminated in the third round in Canada before his round-two loss in Cincy — the American has also had deep runs at Indian Wells, where he reached the semis before losing to eventual runner-up Daniil Medvedev and on the clay courts of Rome, also advancing to the last four before Nicolas Jarry beat him in three sets.
Despite his recent mixed results, the 27-year-old enters the third-round match as the favourite to advance against a 37-year-old opponent who recently ended a four-match losing run in his tournament opener.
Fognini beat countryman Luciano Darderi on Wednesday 6-4, 6-7(5), 6-4, refocusing to take the deciding third set after losing a tight second-set tie-break.
The Italian's round-one victory in Shanghai was only his third at Masters events in 2024, even if that statistic comes with a caveat that he is competing in his third ATP 1000 tournament in China.
Having suffered second-round losses in Indian Wells and Rome, losing to Sebastian Baez and Taylor Fritz respectively, the nine-time Tour-level champion hopes to be third-time lucky against Paul.
Tournament so far
Tommy Paul:
First round: Bye
Fabio Fognini:
First round: vs. Luciano Darderi 6-4 6-7[5] 6-4
Head To Head
Roland Garros (2024) - Second round: Paul 6-1 6-0 6-2
Canadian Open (2019) - Round of 32: Fognini 7-6(3) 6-3
Paul and Fognini's Shanghai Masters match-up will be their third ATP Tour meeting, with both players splitting previous encounters.
The American enters their next meeting with a superior Masters 1000 record (10-6) to the experienced player's 3-2 win-loss statistic in 2024, and he should take added confidence from dropping only three games in their second-round match in Paris.
We say: Paul to win in two sets
Despite a 1-1 head-to-head record with Fognini, Paul's convincing victory against the veteran in Paris, albeit on clay, showcases the gulf in quality between both players. Thus, the world No. 13 should fancy himself to notch a triumph in straight sets against his Italian opponent in Shanghai.
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