Monday may be the final time we see Dominic Thiem compete in a Grand Slam event as the 30-year-old Austrian takes on the #13 seed Ben Shelton in the first round of the US Open at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
These two met in the second round of this event a year ago, with Shelton advancing after Thiem was forced to retire in the second set.
Match preview
After a breakout US Open in 2023, making it to the semi-finals before losing to the eventual champion Novak Djokovic in straight sets, 6-3 6-2 7-6, Ben Shelton is eager to take those final two steps and become the first American male to win this event since Andy Roddick in 2003.
In three Grand Slam tournaments this year, Shelton's best finish was a fourth-round exit at Wimbledon, when Jannik Sinner, the top-seeded player at the 2024 US Open, defeated him on the grass surface.
Last year at Flushing Meadows, Shelton blew away many of his early opponents with his big serve, including hitting two aces in the same game at 149.0 miles per hour.
His first serve has been a nightmare to handle, with the 21-year-old winning 75% of his first-serve points this year while saving 71% of his break points when on serve.
A couple of months after his strong showing at the US Open last year, Shelton claimed his first tournament victory on the hard court, winning the Japan Open in 2023.
The 2022 NCAA Division 1 tennis champion is fresh off a quarter-final exit at the Cincinnati Open, a few months after capturing the US Men's Clay Court Championship.
Nearly four years after winning this tournament in 2020, Dominic Thiem will try to recapture that magic, beginning on Monday against the home crowd favourite.
Since winning the singles title at Flushing Meadows, the 30-year-old has struggled to make deep runs on the Grand Slam stage, with his best finish being a fourth-round exit at the 2021 Australian Open.
Renowned as an aggressive baseline player who is adept at defending, Thiem has not been at his best in 2024, claiming just two tour-level wins all year.
He comes into this tournament as the 145th-ranked player on the men's side and has been knocked out of the opening round in seven of his previous nine Grand Slam appearances.
One of those opening-round match victories came at the 2023 US Open when he upset Alexander Bublik, the #25 seed at the time, in straight sets, 6-3 6-2 6-4.
In his limited action this year, the Austrian has won 62% of his service points on the hard court but has struggled to convert his break points on that surface, clicking at a rate of 38% in that department.
Head To Head
Estoril (2023) - Round of 16: Thiem wins 6-2 6-2
US Open (2023) - Second Round: Shelton wins 7-6 1-0 (Ret)
When these two met for the first time at the 2023 Estoril, the young American's service game was far from what we are used to seeing, winning just 15 of his 29 first-serve points, while the Austrian won 29 of his 36 service points (81%), which ultimately tipped the scales in his favour.
Months later, at the US Open, Shelton was unstoppable in the service game, winning 71% of his first serve points (30/42), including seven aces.
Thiem managed to hang in there for a while by saving four of his five break points to keep it close but, after a while, he could not continue.
We say: Shelton to win in four sets
Thiem still can make this a closer match than many may think, but we do not believe he can contain Shelton's big serve or his aggressiveness as the encounter wears on.
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