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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's US Open quarter-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

The reigning US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz will be aiming to book his place in this year's semi-final when he takes on Alexander Zverev on Wednesday.

Alcaraz won in straight sets in the fourth round, whereas Zverev was involved in a five-set epic against Jannik Sinner.


Match preview

Indeed, Alcaraz has dropped just one set on the way to his fifth Grand Slam quarter-final in his last six attempts, with British No. 2 Daniel Evans the only player to have any remote joy against the Spaniard so far at this tournament.

World No. 61 Matteo Arnaldi, who stunned British No. 1 Cameron Norrie in the third round, would almost certainly not have enjoyed his time on court against Alcaraz on Monday, with the 20-year-old cruising to a comfortable 6-3 6-3 6-4 victory.

Alcaraz faced just one break point in the entire match, which Arnaldi actually converted, whereas the recent Wimbledon champion managed to create 12 himself during an utterly dominant display.

The 20-year-old continues to go from strength-to-strength, but he denied that he is feeling any additional pressure as the defending champion. "I try not to think about being the defending champion," he told reporters. "I just try to be focused on my own game, on what I have to do to put my best level on court. I just delete [the pressure]."

Having only played 11 sets to reach the quarter-final stage, helped in part by Dominik Koepfer's injury-enforced retirement in round one, Alcaraz will hope that freshness can help him across the line when he faces Zverev on Wednesday.

After all, Zverev is likely to be feeling some fatigue after his five-set battle against Sinner, which lasted four hours and 41 minutes in total, with play going on until around 01:30am local time in the early hours of Tuesday morning.

The German managed to edge a tight opening set 6-4 before the two supremely talented players continued to trade blows and exchange sets, setting up a nervy decider in the process. Having turned 26-years-old earlier this year, Zverev's greater experience perhaps paid dividends in the end against his 22-year-old opponent, with the German prevailing 6-3.

Zverev's deciding-set triumph was made all the more remarkable by him understandably being enraged by events within the crowd during the previous set, with Zverev alleging that an individual had used "the most famous Hitler phrase there is in this world" against him. The spectator was eventually ejected after being identified by security.

On the court, the 2020 US Open finalist would have been delighted to overcome Sinner, who demonstrated once again that he is one of the most fearsome baseline ball-strikers on tour. However, Zverev - who has began to hit top form after recovering from his Achilles tendon rupture suffered at last year's French Open - matched the Italian blow-for-blow before ultimately reaching his 10th career Grand Slam quarter-final.

"I guess I can say I'm back, right?" an elated Zverev asked the crowd. "Last year when I wasn't able to play, this is exactly what I missed: playing until 1.30am in front of a packed crowd at Arthur Ashe Stadium. There's nothing better."

Whether he will be able to mentally and physically recover in time to overcome the most in-form tennis player in the world at present is another matter, of course, but if Zverev continues to play in this manner then that elusive Grand Slam title will surely be lifted by him sooner rather than later.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Dominik Koepfer 6-2 3-2 [RET]
Second round: vs. Lloyd Harris 6-3 6-1 7-6
Third round: vs. Daniel Evans 6-2 6-3 4-6 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Matteo Arnaldi 6-3 6-3 6-4

Alexander Zverev:

First round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 6-4 6-4 6-4
Second round: vs. Daniel Altmaier 7-6 3-6 6-4 6-3
Third round: vs. Grigor Dimitrov 6-7 7-6 6-1 6-1
Round of 16: vs. Jannik Sinner 6-4 3-6 6-2 4-6 6-3


Head To Head

Mexico (2021) - Last-32: Zverev wins 6-3 6-1
Vienna (2021) - Semi-Finals: Zverev wins 6-3 6-3
Madrid Masters (2022) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-1
French Open (2022) - Quarter-Finals: Zverev wins 6-4 6-4 4-6 7-6
Madrid Masters (2023) - Last-16: Alcaraz wins 6-1 6-2

Alcaraz and Zverev have met five times during their career so far, with Zverev leading the head-to-head record 3-2. Both of their meetings on a hard court came in 2021, when Alcaraz was still finding his feet as a professional, but Zverev will take confidence from the fact that he won both of those matches ahead of facing the Spaniard on that surface on Wednesday.

Moreover, Zverev managed to win the duo's only previous match-up at a Grand Slam when defeating Alcaraz in four sets at last year's French Open, but his serious injury came one match later and there is little doubt that Alcaraz has progressed even further since then.


We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Providing Zverev manages to rest and recover after his exhausting five-set victory against Sinner only finished in the early hours of Tuesday morning, the German has the capabilities to push Alcaraz hard in their quarter-final meeting.

However, Alcaraz has looked peerless so far at this tournament and has much fewer minutes in his legs having played five fewer sets than his forthcoming opponent, and we expect him to prevail in four or five sets.

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Read more about Carlos Alcaraz Alexander Zverev Jannik Sinner Daniel Evans Matteo Arnaldi Cameron Norrie Dominik Koepfer Grigor Dimitrov Lloyd Harris Daniel Altmaier Aleksandar Vukic Tennis
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