Sports Mole previews Wednesday's US Open second-round match between Casper Ruud and Gael Monfils, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.

Gael Monfils can advance beyond the second round of the US Open for the first time since 2021 when he faces the eighth seed, Casper Ruud, on Wednesday, with the latter seeking redemption following his second-round exit at Wimbledon in July.

In the opening round of this event, the Norwegian had little trouble with Bu Yunchaokete, defeating him in straight sets 7-6 (7-2) 6-2 6-2, while Monfils overcame an early setback against Diego Schwartzman to knock out the Argentine by a final score of 6-7 (7-2) 6-2 6-2 6-1.

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Match preview

After exiting Wimbledon a lot sooner than expected, Ruud showed his wide array of attributes in the opening round of this tournament on Monday.

Ruud had 14 aces against Yunchaokete while winning 88% of his first serve points and putting up 45 winners in a relatively straightforward victory.

He has advanced beyond the opening round in his last 11 Grand Slam appearances but has been eliminated in two of his previous three round-two appearances at Flushing Meadows.

It is no secret that Ruud boasts a heavy serve with plenty of speed and topspin, but his return game was surprisingly sharp on Monday, converting six of his break-point opportunities.

Rarely has the 2022 US Open finalist been that good in the return game on the hard court, winning a mere 21% of his return games on that surface this year and 35% of his return points.

Commonly referred to as "The Iceman" because of his calm on-court demeanour, Ruud has converted 38% of his break points in the return game on hard court surfaces this year.

Despite a disastrous opening set tiebreaker against Schwartzman, Monfils reacted well after that, having now advanced beyond the first round in his previous 10 Grand Slam appearances.

The veteran French player, who has made it to four US Open quarter-finals, broke Schwartzman's serve eight times on Monday while serving up an impressive 16 aces.

That made up for his unforced errors, committing five double faults in his opener but winning 78% of his first-serve points.

Although La Monf ended up winning his opening match, it took him two hours and 42 minutes to claim victory, and it will be interesting to see if fatigue is a factor for the man who turns 38 on September 1.

His high-risk shot-making has made him a fan favourite on the ATP tour for years, while his athleticism and court coverage are still evident despite his age.

Monfils has won an impressive 84% of his service games on the hard court this year, winning 75% of his first serve points, but he has only won 19% of his return games on that surface in 2024.

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Tournament so far

Casper Ruud:

First round: vs. Bu Yunchaokete 7-6 (7-2) 6-2 6-2

Gael Monfils:

First round: vs. Diego Schwartzman 6-7 (7-2) 6-2 6-2 6-1

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Head To Head

Quito (2018)- Second round- Monfils wins 6-4 3-6 6-4

Indian Wells Open (2024)- Fourth round- Ruud wins 3-6 7-6 (7-3) 6-4

Over five years ago, these two squared off in Ecuador for the first time, where Monfils emerged victorious despite 11 double faults, making up for that by winning 41 of his 49 first serve points and capturing 43% of his break points.

In March of this year, the Frenchman did not commit any double faults but was beaten by the Norwegian's return game, with Ruud winning 32% of his return points.

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We say: Monfils to win in five sets

The Frenchman rarely makes it easy on himself, but his ability to retrieve balls across the court has us leaning towards Monfils pulling out a narrow victory over Ruud, who has tended to slip up in the early going of Grand Slams, exiting the second round of a major tournament four times since the start of 2023.

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