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Preview: Elina Svitolina vs. Coco Gauff - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Elina Svitolina vs. Coco Gauff - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Friday's US Open third-round match between Elina Svitolina and Coco Gauff, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Defending US Open champion Coco Gauff faces her toughest hurdle yet in Friday's third-round match against Elina Svitolina.

Both women came through their second-round matches in straight sets but should not expect to breeze through their third meeting on the WTA Tour.


Match preview

Since Svitolina lost the opening set against Maria Lourdes Carle in round one, the Ukrainian has notched four consecutive sets in the first and second rounds to complete a turnaround in the former and secure a straightforward success in Wednesday's round two match.

The No. 27 seed got the better of countrywoman Anhelina Kalinina 6-1, 6-2 to advance to a third match in New York, keen to continue her bid for a maiden Grand Slam triumph.

Svitolina, a three-time semi-finalist at the majors, has never quite cracked it at the leading events, underlined by reaching at least the last eight in 11 Slams (eight quarter-finals and three semi-finals), but never playing a decider.

The 29-year-old's best runs in New York came in 2019 (semis) and two years later (quarters), and she aims to outdo last year's third-round elimination by defeating the defending champion on Friday.

Having made it to the fourth round in Australia and Paris before advancing to the last eight at Wimbledon, the experienced player hopes to match her 2024 level by reaching round four in Queens.

To do that, Svitolina must get the better of last year's champion, who has hitherto dispatched her opponents to extend her winning run at her home Slam to nine victories.

Gauff faced a tricky start to Wednesday's second-round match against German veteran Tatjana Maria, losing her opening service game but responding to win the set 6-4 and following that up with another second-set bagel just as she had done in her round-one victory over Varvara Gracheva.

Facing a seeded opponent for the first time in her title defence, the 20-year-old aims to find her best form to avoid a third-round exit and move past her post-French Open struggles.

However, the No. 3 seed cannot afford to be as sloppy on serve against her Ukrainian opponent on Friday after raking nine double faults in her round-two victory, with seven coming in set one.

Having hit 10 aces in her tournament-opening victory, Gauff managed just one on Wednesday night against Maria as her accuracy and execution nearly cost her a set.

Still, the 2023 champion found a higher level to reduce the errors for a ninth straight victory at the event, and she seeks to enter double figures by defeating Svitolina on Friday.


Tournament so far

Elina Svitolina:

First round: vs. Maria Lourdes Carle 3-6 6-3 6-4
Second round: vs. Anhelina Kalinina 6-1 6-2

Coco Gauff:

First round: vs. Varvara Gracheva 6-2 6-0
Second round: vs. Tatjana Maria 6-4 6-0


Head To Head

Australian Open (2021) - Second round: Svitolina 6-4 6-3

Auckland Open (2024) - Final: Gauff 7-6(4) 6-3 6-3

Svitolina and Gauff are tied 1-1 in their head-to-head heading into the imminent encounter at the US Open.

Interestingly, previous meetings have been on hard courts, with the Ukrainian beating her then-teenage opponent in straight sets at the Australian Open in 2021, but the 20-year-old won the title in Auckland at the 29-year-old's expense in their recent encounter.


We say: Svitolina to win in three sets

Friday's outcome is contingent on Gauff playing close to her best level, as questions over the No. 3 seed's form have lingered since her semi-final run at Roland Garros.

Despite the home support, we are backing Svitolina to upset the American to continue a 10-year wait without a successful title defence since Serena Williams notched three consecutive victories from 2012 to 2014.

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