Jasmine Paolini and Bianca Andreescu will square off in a third successive Grand Slam event this year, with their first-round match at the US Open taking place on Tuesday at Louis Armstrong Stadium.
When these two met in the third round of Wimbledon last month, the Italian came away with a two-set victory 7-4 (4), 6-1 en route to another Grand Slam final.
Match preview
Always the bridesmaid but never the bride has been the story for Jasmine Paolini at Grand Slam tournaments this year, following up her straight sets defeat to Iga Swiatek in the French Open final with a narrow three-set loss versus Barbora Krejcikova in the Wimbledon final at the All England Club.
The 28-year-old from Tuscany has been to three Grand Slam finals this year and lost them all, including the doubles final at Roland Garros, where she and partner Sara Errani lost to Coco Gauff and Katerina Siniakova 7-6 (7-5), 6-3.
Paolini enters this tournament as the #5 seed, fresh off capturing the women's doubles Olympic gold medal alongside Errani in a thrilling finish against Diana Shnaider and Mirra Andreeva 2-6, 6-1 (10-7).
She has utilised her powerful groundstrokes and the heavy topspin on her forehand to make many deep runs in major tournaments, winning 46.2% of her return points this year.
Being small in stature at 1.63m means that she cannot often rely on a heavy serve, winning 62.8% of her first serves in 2024, but her speed and agility have enabled her to outmanoeuvre opponents, converting over 50% (50.6) of her return break points this year.
In 2023, she was knocked out in the opening round in three of the four Grand Slam events, but this year, she has made it to at least the fourth round or further in each major tournament.
While Paolini has excelled in Grand Slams this year, Bianca Andreescu has had a difficult 2024 season, featuring in only five WTA events and exiting two in the opening round (Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open).
It feels like a long time since the Canadian upset Serena Williams to claim the 2019 US Open crown, with her best finish at Flushing Meadows since then being a fourth-round elimination in 2023.
Andreescu is tough to beat when her forehand is working well, with a heavy topspin that pushes her opponents way back behind the baseline, an attribute which enabled her to hit 19 winners in her 2019 US Open final triumph.
Unlike her Italian opponent on Tuesday, Andreescu's serve is much harder to contain, with the 24-year-old winning 73% of her service games this year and boasting a first serve percentage of 66.9.
On the other hand, she could use some of Paolini's scrappiness and speed, with the Canadian winning a mere 28.8% of her return games in 2024.
She has not been eliminated in any of her previous eight opening-round Grand Slam tournaments, defeating Spaniard Sara Sorribes Tormo at this stage of the French Open this year and eliminating Romanian Jaqueline Cristian in the first round of Wimbledon last month.
Head To Head
French Open (2024) - Third Round: Paolini wins 6-1 3-6 6-0
Wimbledon (2024) - Third Round: Paolini wins 7-6 (4) 6-1
In the first meeting between these two this year, Andreescu made 24 unforced errors, wasting a relatively solid performance, winning 67% of her break points.
At Wimbledon earlier this summer, the 28-year-old's monster forehand overpowered the Canadian, with Paolini winning 48% of her return points.
The Italian also claimed a decisive edge on her first serve in that encounter, winning 28/37 on that occasion, with Andreescu only winning 28/45.
We say: Paolini to win in three sets
An upset win for the 169th-ranked player at this tournament, Andreescu, is not out of the realm of possibilities, but we are leaning towards Paolini, who has managed to grind out victories and has excelled at the return game all year long.
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