After six quarter-final disappointments since the start of 2021, Jessica Pegula defeated 2022 US Open champion Iga Swiatek to secure a semi-final berth against Karolina Muchova in Thursday night's last-four tussle at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
The world No. 6 stunned Swiatek to record her fourth victory over the Pole and seeks another top showing to beat the in-form Muchova, who dispatched Beatriz Haddad Maia in two sets despite catching a bug during her last-eight victory over the Brazilian.
Match preview
Only a handful of women on the WTA Tour can boast of four wins against Swiatek, and Pegula is one of them after a commendable performance to topple the 2022 champion 6-2, 6-4 in Wednesday's night session.
Although the American undoubtedly caught her Polish opponent on a rare bad day, underscored by the No. 1 seed's 41 unforced errors, the home hope also forced the issue and executed the big points admirably as she unsettled the five-time Grand Slam winner.
Swiatek went into her quarter-final match without a set dropped and without facing a break point in three consecutive rounds, only for the American to break her serve four times in front of a partisan crowd inside Arthur Ashe, thus avenging her chastening defeat by the dominant Polish player at last year's WTA Finals.
At the seventh time of asking, the 30-year-old has ended a six-match losing run in quarter-final matches of Majors, and she now seeks to go one step further by defeating Muchova for the second time in three weeks.
She got the better of her Czech opponent last month in the WTA 1000 event in Cincinnati and will back herself to outdo the world No. 52 again.
That match in Cincy was a three-setter, and another extended battle could ensue with both women seeking a first US Open final appearance against Aryna Sabalenka or Emma Navarro.
Muchova's second set against Haddad Maia was punctuated by the 2023 US Open semi-finalist intermittently leaving the court and requiring medical treatment but still sealing a 6-1, 6-4 victory over the 22nd seed.
Despite the Brazilian's second-set improvement, the Czech's standard variety was enough to secure a fifth straight success on her return to Flushing Meadows without dropping a set to become the first Czech woman to reach consecutive US Open semi-finals since Helena Sukova in 1986-87.
Although the 28-year-old is playing her sixth tournament since returning from the wrist injury that required surgery and sidelined her for nine months, she has typically played freely on her return to New York, advancing to multiple semi-finals at a tour-level event for the first time.
Muchova's first run to the US Open last four was ended in straight sets by a home favourite in Coco Gauff, and she must overcome the partisan crowd inside Arthur Ashe to advance to the title match in Queens and second overall after reaching last year's French Open decider.
Tournament so far
Jessica Pegula:
First round: vs. Shelby Rogers 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 7-6[4] 6-3
Third round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-3 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Diana Shnaider 6-4 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Iga Swiatek 6-2 6-4
Karolina Muchova:
First round: vs. Katie Volynets 6-3 7-5
Second round: vs. Naomi Osaka 6-3 7-5[5]
Third round: vs. Anastasia Potapova 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia 6-1 6-4
Head To Head
Cincinnati (2024) - Second round: Pegula 5-7 6-4 6-2
Pegula defeated Muchova in their only tour-level match-up in Cincinnati three weeks ago, recovering from a first-set loss to win the second-round match in three.
The American has notched two titles in 2024 to Muchova's none — she also holds a 6-1 lead for career titles — recently clinching the title at the Canadian Open before a run to the title match in Cincy, where she lost to Sabalenka.
Given Muchova's extended absence, her 12-3 win-loss record is significantly inferior to Pegula's 34-10 — this is not unexpected considering her time away from the court.
We say: Pegula to win in three sets
You can make a case for both women heading into Thursday night's semi-final: Pegula has won 14 of her past 15 matches while Muchova's momentum, the experience of playing at this stage on two occasions and facing a home favourite in 2023 should stand her in good stead as she bids for a first final at Flushing Meadows.
However, the American's superior recent body of work before her first experience of a Grand Slam semi should see her edge the returning Czech player in a close last-four match.
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