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Preview: Matteo Berrettini vs. Taylor Fritz- prediction, form, head-to-head

:Headline: Preview: Matteo Berrettini vs. Taylor Fritz- prediction, form, head-to-head:
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's US Open second-round match between Matteo Berrettini and Taylor Fritz, including predictions, form and their head-to-head record.
Sports Mole

Matteo Berrettini can reach the third round of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time this year when he squares off against American Taylor Fritz on Wednesday at the US Open.

Both players were pushed in the first set of their opening round matches but ultimately persevered, with Berrettini defeating Albert Ramos-Vinolas in straight sets, 7-6 (7-2) 6-2 6-3, while Fritz beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli 7-5 6-1 6-2.


Match preview

Berrettini had to work hard to fend off the determination of his 36-year-old Spanish opponent on Monday, but the Italian was ultimately too strong on the day.

In the opening round, Berrettini used his biggest asset to great effect, hitting 16 aces and showcasing his incredible power when on serve.

He boasted a remarkable first serve winning percentage of 88% against Ramos-Vinolas, enabling him to reach the second round of a Grand Slam for a second successive occasion.

His booming serve may be the most noticeable skill in his repertoire, but the three-time US Open quarter-finalist has a strong forehand and aggressive approach, which was on full display in round one of this tournament, as he converted 56% of his break point opportunities.

That is an encouraging sign, given his struggles on the hard court this year, winning only 14% of his return games on that surface in 2024 and just 31% of his return points.

Only once in his previous four Grand Slam appearances has Berrettini made it beyond the second round of a major tournament, exiting in the fourth round of Wimbledon in 2023 on his preferred grass surface.

A close opening set turned into a blowout as the match wore on, with Fritz leaving no doubt in the end and easing his way into round two.

On Monday, Fritz capitalised on his opponent's unforced errors as Carabelli committed seven double faults, while the California-born player won seven break points.

The quarter-finalist at this event last year won 80% of his first serve points against Carabelli and has not been eliminated from the second round of a Grand Slam since the 2023 edition of Wimbledon.

His sharp-angle cross-court shots helped him reach the last eight of the US Open a year ago, and they played a big part in his making the quarter-finals in two of the three men's singles Grand Slam events this year.

He has an equally strong serve, which we witnessed on Monday, hitting 10 aces in that encounter while only giving up one on his end.

Although it was not noticeable in round one of this tournament, Fritz has struggled in the return game this year, particularly on hard court surfaces, converting only 36% of his break points while winning 23% of his break point games.


Tournament so far

Matteo Berrettini:

First round: vs. Albert Ramos-Vinolas 7-6 (7-2) 6-2 603

Taylor Fritz:

First round: vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli 7-5 6-1 6-2


Head To Head

Davis Cup (2019) - Round robin - Fritz wins 5-7 7-6 (7-5) 6-2

ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells (2021) - Round of 32 - Fritz wins 6-4 6-3

United Cup (2023) - Final - Fritz wins 7-6 (7-4) 7-6 (8-6)

When these two first met in 2019, despite registering six double faults, Fritz made up for that with 12 aces of his own while winning 77% of his first-serve points.

In their rematch nearly two years later, Berrettini only won 33% of his break points and just seven of his 21 second serve points to lose in straight sets.

At the United Cup last year, the American had his serve working throughout the match, with 15 aces to Berrettini's seven and only losing seven of his 52 first serves.


We say: Fritz to win in four sets

With the way these two hit the ball, we could see our share of aces, but we believe that Fritz's power on the backhand and forehand will enable him to see off a gutsy Berrettini, who is never an easy out.

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