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Preview: Yulia Putintseva vs. Jasmine Paolini - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Yulia Putintseva vs. Jasmine Paolini - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Saturday's US Open third-round match between Yulia Putintseva and Jasmine Paolini, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Sports Mole

Yulia Putintseva and Jasmine Paolini lock horns in the US Open third round on Saturday, with both women keen to have deep runs in the final Grand Slam of 2024.

The Kazakhstani has not dropped a set en route to a third match in New York, while her opponent seeks to make the tournament's fourth round for the first time.


Match preview

After three consecutive years of early exits in New York, Putintseva overcame Wang Xinyu in the second round to play her first third-round match since 2020, notching a 6-1, 7-6 (4) victory over her Chinese opponent.

That run in Queens four years back saw the Kazakhstani player reach the last eight at Flushing Meadows — her only last-eight involvement in the tournament — and she is two victories from another appearance in the quarters, having had a round two elimination in 2022 sandwiched between two first-round eliminations in 2021 and 2023.

Putintseva's US Open form heading into this year's third round has left her unblemished in four sets, even if she had to recover from 5-3 down in the second set against Xinyu to clinch her first win over her Chinese opponent at the fourth time of asking.

That ought to stand the 29-year-old in good stead ahead of this weekend's meeting with Paolini, as she seeks a 14th win over an opponent ranked in the top 10, and a fourth in 2024, following success over Zheng Qinwen in Madrid and recent victories over Iga Swiatek at Wimbledon and Coco Gauff in Cincinnati.

The Italian's level at the ongoing tournament is yet to be determined after she needed three sets to defeat 2019 champion Bianca Andreescu in round one, and second-round opponent Karolina Pliskova retired three points into their match due to a seeming foot injury.

The upshot of both victories means the No. 5 seed has earned a place in the third round at Flushing Meadows for the first time in a breathtaking year in her singles career, overcoming three tournament-opening exits in New York and a second-round exit in 2021 to make it this far.

Having made it to consecutive Grand Slam finals in Paris and Wimbledon, the 28-year-old aims to close out the year with a maiden success in the majors.

Her peak in the leading hard court events was a fourth-round run Down Under in Australia this year, and she seeks to match that by defeating her opponent in their second meeting on the WTA Tour.

While a 20% win rate heading into this year's tournament means past performance rules Paolini out of contention in Queens, the 28-year-old's incredible showing at the last two Slams makes her an outsider to challenge Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and defending champion Gauff at the US Open.


Tournament so far

Yulia Putintseva:

First round: vs. Linda Noskova 7-6[3] 6-4
Second round: vs. Wang Xinyu 6-1 7-6[4]

Jasmine Paolini:

First round: vs. Bianca Andreescu 6-7[5] 6-2 6-4
Second round: vs. Karolina Pliskova 0-0 ret.


Head To Head

Slovenia Open (2021) - Semi-finals: Paolini 1-6 6-3 6-4

Paolini won the only meeting with Putintseva at the 2021 Slovenia Open en route to her maiden Tour-level title, recovering from a disappointing opening set to win in three.

Much has changed for the Italian since that match three years back, with her improved ranking and deep run in the majors making her a challenger for the big prizes.

Both players have notched a title each in 2024, with Putintseva clinching 33 wins in 50 matches to Paolini's 31 in 45 before the US Open.


We say: Paolini to win in three sets

Putintseva packs a punch — and her third-round success over Swiatek at Wimbledon shows she always fancies herself against top opponents — but we are backing Paolini to match her Australian Open performance and continue her dreamlike Grand Slam showings in 2024 by advancing to the fourth round.

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