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Preview: Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

:Headline: Preview: Marketa Vondrousova vs. Ons Jabeur - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far:
Sports Mole previews Saturday's Wimbledon final between Marketa Vondrousova and Ons Jabeur, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournamenr so far.
Sports Mole

A new Wimbledon women's singles champion will be crowned on Saturday, as Tunisian sixth seed Ons Jabeur meets world number 42 Marketa Vondrousova on Centre Court.

Jabeur produced a phenomenal comeback to sink Aryna Sabalenka in their three-set semi-final, while Vondrousova dominated Ukrainian wildcard Elina Svitolina 6-3 6-3.


Match preview

In what was the first-ever Wimbledon women's semi-final between two unseeded players in the Open Era, Ukraine's Svitolina and the Czech Republic's Vondrousova were seeking to prolong their sensational success stories at SW19 following their respective lengthy absences.

Crowd favourite Svitolina - who had only just returned to the tour in the spring after giving birth - entered the semis on the back of a shock win over world number one Iga Swiatek, but the 28-year-old's powers waned and then some against Vondrousova, whose troublesome wrist injury and surgery has been firmly consigned to the past.

Vondrousova took just 75 minutes to dismantle Svitolina 6-3 6-3, although several eyebrows were raised on Centre Court when the world number 42 nearly let a 4-0 lead slip in the second set, as Svitolina roared back to 4-3 before Vondrousova staved off that short-lived fightback.

Thanks to an impressive 22 winners and 74% of points won on her first serve, Vondrousova will be the first unseeded player in 60 years to play in a Wimbledon final - joining elite company with Billie Jean King, the last woman to do so in 1963 - and since the WTA rankings came into effect, the world number 42 is the second lowest-ranked player to reach the showpiece after a then-world number 181 Serena Williams in 2018.

The 24-year-old's feats are all the more astounding considering that she had only ever progressed beyond the quarter-finals of a Grand Slam once before - losing the 2019 French Open showpiece to Ashleigh Barty - and she had only ever won one main-draw match at Wimbledon before touching back down in the UK this year.

While Vondrousova is on her own path to redemption, last year's runner-up Jabeur also needs no added incentive to right the wrongs of majors gone by, and she took a giant step towards doing so by eliminating Elena Rybakina in a repeat of the 2022 final during the last eight.

Following that successful revenge mission, the ever-powerful Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka was standing in her way of a shot at lifting the Venus Rosewater Dish, and the writing appeared to be on the wall for Jabeur when the Australian Open champion led by a set and a break.

However, Jabeur kept her unforced errors to a minimum and produced an array of sumptuous down-the-line winners to prevail 6-7[5] 6-4 6-3 in an unforgettable semi-final, remarkably winning 80% of points behind her second serve after an agonising tie-breaker defeat in the first set.

Third time could now be the charm for Jabeur, who also suffered US Open heartbreak at the hands of Swiatek last year after collecting the runners-up trophy at SW19, and the Tunisian trailblazer has established a reputation as this year's comeback queen.

Indeed, Jabeur has come from a set down in three separate matches to reach the Wimbledon final - only Justine Henin (2001) and Marion Bartoli (2007) have previously done so in the Open Era - while she has also beaten a trio of top-10 players to make it this far; no woman since Serena Williams in 2012 had previously been able to boast that achievement.


Tournament so far

Marketa Vondrousova:

First round: vs. Peyton Stearns 6-2 7-5
Second round: vs. Veronika Kudermetova 6-3 6-3
Third round: vs. Donna Vekic 6-1 7-5
Round of 16: vs. Marie Bouzkova 2-6 6-4 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Jessica Pegula 6-4 2-6 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Elina Svitolina 6-3 6-3

Ons Jabeur:

First round: vs. Magdalena Frech 6-3 6-3
Second round: vs. Bai Zhuoxuan 6-1 6-1
Third round: vs. Bianca Andreescu 3-6 6-3 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Petra Kvitova 6-0 6-3
Quarter-final: vs. Elena Rybakina 6-7[5] 6-4 6-1
Semi-final: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 6-7[5] 6-4 6-3


Head To Head

Prague Open (2015) - Qualifying round two: Vondrousova wins 6-3 3-0 ret.
Sunrise Open (2016) - Last 16: Jabeur wins 6-3 6-3
Eastbourne International (2021) - First round: Jabeur wins 6-3 7-6[4]
Stuttgart Open (2022) - First round: Jabeur wins 4-6 6-2 6-3
Australian Open (2023) - Second round: Vondrousova wins 6-1 5-7 6-1
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Third round: Vondrousova wins 7-6[5] 6-4

Jabeur and Vondrousova could hardly be more evenly-matched ahead of Saturday's historic final, as both women have three wins to their name from their six previous meetings, although Vondrousova's opening success during qualifying for the 2015 Prague Open came after Jabeur retired injured.

The Tunisian would subsequently claim a trio of successive wins over her Czech counterpart, including on British grass at the 2021 Eastbourne International, before coming from a set down to win in Stuttgart last year.

However, Jabeur's Australian Open run in January memorably came to an end at the hands of Vondrousova, who also triumphed in straight sets during their most recent showdown at the Indian Wells Masters in March.


We say: Jabeur to win in three sets

Both Vondrousova and Jabeur are capable of pulling off deft drop shots and hitting winners from a variety of angles, while there is nothing to separate the two warriors in the head-to-head column, even if the unseeded Czech has had the Tunisian's number this year.

However, assuming Jabeur avoid another catastrophic showing akin to her Australian Open exit - where she hit 50 unforced errors against Vondrousova - the world number six will be the firm favourite to lift the Venus Rosewater Dish aloft, and while she may need to channel her penchant for clutch three-set wins, we expect Jabeur to finally check off the unticked Grand Slam box on her CV.


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