Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina take to the court in Wednesday's WTA Finals round-robin dead rubber, given the former's qualification in first and the latter's elimination.
The Belarusian also secured the year-end No. 1 ranking after Iga Swiatek's shock loss to Coco Gauff, meaning she has little riding on the outcome of her final match in the Purple Group.
Match preview
Sabalenka entered the Finals in Riyadh knowing an undefeated run in the round-robin stage would guarantee her the year-end No. 1 ranking for the first time.
She had reason to believe she needed victories against Qinwen Zheng, Jasmine Paolini, and Wednesday's opponent, Rybakina, because Swiatek could potentially win all her matches in the Orange Group.
While the Belarusian did her part in matches one and two, the Polish star's loss to Gauff on Tuesday means Sabalenka has secured the year-end No. 1 ranking.
This victory changes the complexion of Wednesday's match, as the Belarusian no longer needs to win to secure the top spot.
Given the lessened importance of her third round-robin match, it will be interesting to assess her motivation heading into Wednesday.
Although Rybakina has been eliminated early for the second straight year at the Finals, the Kazakhstani showed in previous matches that she retains the menace on serve and baseline ball striking to threaten any opponent.
While this could not lead to victories against Paolini and Zheng, the 2022 Wimbledon champion took both women to tie-breaks, losing both, and took a set off the Olympic champion.
Despite the obvious rustiness, having not played since her first-round US Open match against Destanee Aiava before the year-end tournament, Rybakina winning a set against in-form Zheng stands her in good stead before a 10th tour-level meeting with the Belarusian.
Although she was beaten in their last match-up in Madrid months back, the world No. 5 claimed a victory in their other meeting in Brisbane at the start of the year, leaving both players 1-1 in 2024.
Thus, the Kazakhstani seeks a 42nd victory of 2024 in Wednesday's dead rubber, keen to capitalise on any drop-off by the world No. 1.
Tournament so far
Aryna Sabalenka:
Round Robin: vs. Qinwen Zheng 6-3 6-4
Round Robin: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-3 7-5
Elena Rybakina:
Round Robin: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6–7(5) 4–6
Round Robin: vs. Qinwen Zheng 6-7(4) 6–3 1–6
Head To Head
Madrid (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 1-6 7-5 7-6(5)
Brisbane (2024) - Final: Rybakina 6-0 6-3
WTA Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-2 3-6 6-3
Beijing (2023) - Quarter-finals: Rybakina 7-5 6-2
Indian Wells (2023) - Final: Rybakina 7-6(11) 6-4
Australian Open (2023) - Final: Sabalenka 4-6 6-3 6-4
Wimbledon (2021) - Fourth round: Sabalenka 6-3 4-6 6-3
Abu Dhabi (2021) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-4 4-6 6-3
Wuhan (2019) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-3 1-6 6-1
Sabalenka leads her head-to-head with Rybakina 6-3, although both players have split both meetings in 2024 — the world No. 1 won in Madrid after losing the Brisbane final at the start of the year.
The four-time Slam champion raced into a 4-0 lead before the 2022 Wimbledon champion's three wins in the recent five meetings.
Interestingly, every Sabalenka triumph has been in two sets, while Rybakina's three have been in straights.
Despite Rybakina's extended absence until returning for the WTA Finals, her 78.8% win percentage (41-11) is slightly outdone by her top-ranked opponent's 82.4% (56-12).
We say: Rybakina to win in two sets
While Sabalenka has already secured the year-end No. 1 ranking, Rybakina is determined to avoid leaving Riyadh without a win.
Thus, we predict the fifth seed will secure her fourth career victory over the world No. 1.
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