Despite selling Fullkrug towards the end of the transfer window, Werder Bremen still retain plenty of quality in attacking areas, and we expect them to have a little too much for Darmstadt as a result.
The hosts have conceded 16 goals in five matches and simply do not look capable of keeping clean sheets at this level, so it could be a long and difficult season for them, even if they should show plenty of fight and score a reasonable amount of goals along the way.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SV Darmstadt 98 win with a probability of 51.18%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 25.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a SV Darmstadt 98 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.26%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SV Darmstadt 98 would win this match.
-0.94) 
0.05) 
