SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 37.68%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 36.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.07%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union Berlin | Draw | Freiburg |
37.68% ( 0.98) | 25.4% ( 0.18) | 36.92% ( -1.16) |
| Both teams to score 56.34% ( -0.63) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.52% ( -0.81) | 47.48% ( 0.81) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.31% ( -0.75) | 69.69% ( 0.75) |
| Union Berlin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.27% ( 0.17) | 24.73% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.71% ( 0.23) | 59.29% ( -0.23) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.86% ( -1) | 25.14% ( 1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.14% ( -1.4) | 59.86% ( 1.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union Berlin | Draw | Freiburg |
| 1-0 @ 8.69% ( 0.33) 2-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.12)2-0 @ 6.07% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 3.9% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.83% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 1.83% Total : 37.68% | 1-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.12) 0-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 5.78% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 8.59% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 3.81% ( -0.19)0-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.76% Total : 36.92% |
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