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Champions League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Feb 13, 2024 at 8pm UK
Red Bull Arena
RM

RB Leipzig
0 - 1
Real Madrid


Rose (45'), Simakan (53'), Poulsen (77'), Sesko (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Diaz (48')
Carvajal (66'), Junior (85')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 36.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.77%) and 0-2 (5.55%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
RB LeipzigDrawReal Madrid
36.32% (0.032000000000004 0.03) 23.45% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 40.22% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Both teams to score 63.45% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.75% (0.014000000000003 0.01)38.25% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.47% (0.015999999999998 0.02)60.52% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)
RB Leipzig Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.73% (0.024000000000001 0.02)21.26% (-0.023999999999997 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.82% (0.038000000000004 0.04)54.18% (-0.038000000000004 -0.04)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.59% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)19.41% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.77% (-0.010000000000005 -0.01)51.23% (0.011999999999993 0.01)
Score Analysis
    RB Leipzig 36.32%
    Real Madrid 40.22%
    Draw 23.45%
RB LeipzigDrawReal Madrid
2-1 @ 8.11% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 6.39%
2-0 @ 4.95% (0.0039999999999996 0)
3-1 @ 4.19% (0.0049999999999999 0)
3-2 @ 3.43% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 2.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 1.62% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-2 @ 1.33% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 0.99% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.78%
Total : 36.32%
1-1 @ 10.47%
2-2 @ 6.65% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-0 @ 4.13% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-3 @ 1.88% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 23.45%
1-2 @ 8.59% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-1 @ 6.77% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.55% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.69% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-3 @ 3.63% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 3.03% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 1.92% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.49%
0-4 @ 1.24% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 3.31%
Total : 40.22%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Augsburg 2-2 RB Leipzig
Saturday, February 10 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-0 Union Berlin
Sunday, February 4 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Stuttgart 5-2 RB Leipzig
Saturday, January 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 2-3 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, January 20 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: RB Leipzig 0-1 Frankfurt
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 1-1 RB Leipzig
Tuesday, December 19 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Real Madrid 4-0 Girona
Saturday, February 10 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico
Sunday, February 4 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Getafe 0-2 Real Madrid
Thursday, February 1 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Las Palmas 1-2 Real Madrid
Saturday, January 27 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 3-2 Almeria
Sunday, January 21 at 3.15pm in La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 4-2 Real Madrid
Thursday, January 18 at 8.30pm in Copa del Rey


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