Alaves have been strong at home this season, and they are capable of making this a tricky match for Athletic. It would certainly not be a surprise to see an away win, but we just have a feeling that the points will be shared in this all-Basque clash.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 38.65%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 30.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.72%) and 1-2 (7.46%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (12.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
0.05) 
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