Las Palmas have only lost two of their nine home league matches this season, conceding just seven times in the process. If Villarreal were in full flow, we would fancy the visitors to win here, but it is tough to back them at the moment, and we are not expecting Las Palmas to lose in front of their own fans.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Las Palmas had a probability of 35.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Las Palmas win was 2-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
0.51) 
-0.62) 
