Atalanta (10) and Milan (12) are the only two Serie A sides to have scored at least 10 goals via substitutes this season, so late inspiration could well come from the bench in a close-fought contest. The points may be split at the final whistle, which would maintain the Rossoneri's grip on third spot.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.25) 
-0.27) 
