SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Napoli had a probability of 33.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Napoli win was 0-1 (8.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for AC Milan in this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Napoli |
40.62% ( -0.19) | 25.42% ( 0.07) | 33.96% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 55.84% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.04% ( -0.3) | 47.95% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.87% ( -0.27) | 70.13% ( 0.27) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.59% ( -0.23) | 23.41% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.59% ( -0.33) | 57.4% ( 0.33) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.91% ( -0.07) | 27.09% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.53% ( -0.1) | 62.47% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Napoli |
| 1-0 @ 9.21% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.73% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 6.69% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.17% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.06% Total : 40.62% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.34% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.7% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.42% | 0-1 @ 8.28% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.85% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 5.41% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.42% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.12% ( -0)Other @ 3.04% Total : 33.96% |
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