As Monza's home record is below-par, and they seem to be coasting towards the campaign's end, in-form Lazio can score more than once and take three points back to the capital.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 42.47%. A win for Monza had a probability of 32.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.07%). The likeliest Monza win was 1-0 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
-0.42) 
0.8) 
