Roma have had less chance to rest and recover, but they have recently shown an ability to grind out results rather than simply playing on the front foot under Daniele De Rossi. Bologna (seven) are one of only two teams to have scored more goals in second-half stoppage time than the Giallorossi (five) in Serie A this season, so this contest could go right to the wire.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 30.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Bologna win was 0-1 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
0.95) 
-1.05) 
