Although Genoa have struggled to score regularly on the road, Salernitana's vulnerable defence can be breached at least once by Gilardino's tough-to-beat Grifone.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.86%) and 0-2 (7.77%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
-0.12) 
0.2) 
