SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 60.8%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for River Plate had a probability of 15.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.48%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a River Plate win it was 0-1 (6.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | River Plate |
60.8% ( -0.23) | 23.27% ( 0.21) | 15.92% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 43.64% ( -0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.35% ( -0.72) | 54.64% ( 0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.02% ( -0.6) | 75.98% ( 0.6) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.36% ( -0.34) | 17.64% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.75% ( -0.6) | 48.25% ( 0.6) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.99% ( -0.4) | 47.01% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.51% ( -0.3) | 82.49% ( 0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 14.38% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 9.42% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 5.45% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 3.13% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 1.09% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.22% Total : 60.8% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 8.29% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 3.56% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.56% Total : 23.27% | 0-1 @ 6.26% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 4.1% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.36% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.17% Total : 15.92% |
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