Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 48.03%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 29.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.85%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
0.09) 
-0.02) 
