Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 42.95%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 31.89% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
-0.07) 
0.22) 
