Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jahn Regensburg win with a probability of 40.7%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jahn Regensburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 0-1 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
-0.59) 
0.25) 
