Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 46.61%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 0-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
-1.7) 
0.05) 
