Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 46.7%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 0-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.03) 
