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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macarthur win with a probability of 52.44%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 25.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.05%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
52.44% ( 0.49) | 21.7% ( 0.05) | 25.85% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 63.95% ( -0.74) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.89% ( -0.73) | 35.11% ( 0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.88% ( -0.82) | 57.11% ( 0.82) |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.37% ( -0.1) | 13.63% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.21% ( -0.2) | 40.79% ( 0.2) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.04% ( -0.77) | 25.96% ( 0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.03% ( -1.05) | 60.97% ( 1.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 6.3% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 3.14% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.25% ( -0)4-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.98% Total : 52.44% | 1-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.39% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.36% Total : 21.7% | 1-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 3.22% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.31% Total : 25.85% |
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