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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.49%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 21.87% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
56.49% ( -0.18) | 21.65% ( -0.02) | 21.87% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 59.12% ( 0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.72% ( 0.36) | 39.28% ( -0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.39% ( 0.38) | 61.61% ( -0.37) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.21% ( 0.06) | 13.78% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 58.9% ( 0.12) | 41.1% ( -0.12) |
| Sydney FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.57% ( 0.39) | 31.43% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.19% ( 0.45) | 67.8% ( -0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
| 2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.41% Total : 56.49% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.33% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.65% | 1-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.66% Total : 21.87% |
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