SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 49.09%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 27.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
49.09% ( 0.42) | 23.69% ( -0.45) | 27.22% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 58.14% ( 1.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.66% ( 2.07) | 43.34% ( -2.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.26% ( 2) | 65.74% ( -2) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.22% ( 0.96) | 17.78% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.51% ( 1.63) | 48.5% ( -1.63) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.71% ( 1.11) | 29.29% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.74% ( 1.34) | 65.26% ( -1.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9% ( -0.54)2-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 4.47% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.21)4-1 @ 2.37% ( 0.15)4-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.46% ( 0.13)Other @ 3.71% Total : 49.09% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.31) 2-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.19)0-0 @ 5.21% ( -0.49)3-3 @ 1.38% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.68% | 1-2 @ 6.78% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.4% ( -0.39)0-2 @ 3.93% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 1.61% ( 0)Other @ 3.33% Total : 27.22% |
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