Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.16%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 23.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.39%) and 0-2 (8.69%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.