SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ethiopia win with a probability of 50.28%. A draw had a probability of 30.8% and a win for Guinea had a probability of 18.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ethiopia win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.73%) and 2-1 (7.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.38%), while for a Guinea win it was 0-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Guinea |
50.28% ( 0.01) | 30.77% ( 0.11) | 18.95% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 31.95% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 27.18% ( -0.32) | 72.82% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 11.01% ( -0.19) | 88.99% ( 0.19) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.78% ( -0.17) | 30.22% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.62% ( -0.2) | 66.38% ( 0.19) |
| Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.78% ( -0.34) | 54.22% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.59% ( -0.21) | 87.41% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Guinea |
| 1-0 @ 19.6% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 11.73% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 2.87% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 50.27% | 0-0 @ 16.38% ( 0.19) 1-1 @ 12% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.19% Total : 30.77% | 0-1 @ 10.02% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.17% Total : 18.94% |
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